I've started a second blog, nonpolitical--
Irish stories,etc.

horseshoof.blogspot.com

 
Army suicides UP 20% in ’07.
2100 total attempted suicides.
BOSTON31jAN

 
I noted my few readers recently. In 2 days since, that note has picked up 500 readers in Boston.

 
Mil.Shortage in Homeland:
We don’t have enough trained GIs, or equipment to deal with
a huge attack on our homeland.
Why not? Iraq !
GUARDIAN31Jan

 
Earlier I said wrongly that battle-concussions were not treatable.
It turns out that by definition, it’s called a concussion only if there’s no visible brain damage.

5% of these b-cs involved blacking out. They are more likely to be associated with depression and cognitive problems.
NYTIMES31Jan

 
EXCITABLE SPORTS-FANS DIE from heart-attacks.
DENVER TV/30June
That might improve the gene-pool.

 
WHY KEEP POSTING? (6000 POSTS HERE SINCE '02).
Hostile critics sneer at my few readers.
But I'm a born teacher: it's wonderful to help others while losing nothing.

I post on several message boards.

If only 20 smart readers a day, that's like a graduate course.

Also, I sometimes hit a homer:
recent letter printed by USATODAY--9 MILLION READERS.

 
SHELL-SHOCK: Returned vets often suffer from both depression
and severe concussion.

Depression is treatable; not concussion.
MSNBC
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22904216/

 
IRAQ WINDFALL?
High oil price not factored in to Maliki estimates.
Exports still lower than Saddam's.
REUTERS/30jAN

Who’ll get extra $? Central govt?
Or Shias/Kurds controlling oil regions?

 
FEW OIL$ for IRAQ:
Neighbors get $100 for oil-barrel,
pledged help for Iraq,
have come up with damn little.
UNITED PRESS30jAN

 
OVERWHELMING AIRPOWER DIDN’T WORK Says Israeli panel.
(despite 4 million cluster bomblets dropped on Lebanon !)

Israel DID NOT win Lebanese war;

Army did NOT counter Hizbollah rockets.
LATIMES30Jan

 
6 yrsAfterInvasion,TalibanRising:

Nothing in Kabul is safe.

Situation like just before Soviets were driven out.

Outside investment way down because of dangers.

“Lose the population,you lose the war.
Kharzai’s regime is losing the population.”

But Kharzai says Brit bungling made things worse.

Independent study says Afgh. Risks becoming a failed state.

Taliban saw it could explode Westerners in ‘safest’ parts of Kabul.
Taliban was blamed for 9/11…so failure vs. Tal. Means
Bushies are losing THREE wars at once:
Iraq, Afgh, and vs. terror.

(But they’re ready to plunge into 4th war vs. Iran!)


USATODAY,30Jan,p.1.

 
LIVES, EGGS, & PEOPLE:
G.Bonner in a letter to USATODAY 29Jan says correctly that
people have a right to life— but then he says that if the foetus is a life,
abortion is wrong—without any appeal to religion.

But a worm is a life.
The question is whether fertilized human eggs are people.
(A sperm is a live being which is human, but not a ‘human being’ with rights.)

Common-sense says eggs are not people;
only a religion could make you believe otherwise.
And in fact ‘eggs-as-people’ is nowhere mentioned in the Bible.
Only some modern Popes have said that fertilized eggs are people with rights.

It’s fascinating that Protestant fundamentalists are building
their horror at early abortions on some opinions of modern Popes.

 
CANADA BUGOUT? Yes, unless
another NATO nation adds 1000 troops
to dangerous South of Afghanistan.
NOT LIKELY.
CNN 29jAN

 
Thirty-Six GIs killed in Iraq in Jan,
vs. 23 in Dec.
PBS NEWS 28Jan

 
BUSHIE AFGHAN/PAK. ALARM;
Our vaunted unmanned Predators haven’t located binLaden.

Musharref forbids our troops to enter Pakistan.

Quaeda has a safe haven in border regions, are now attacking Pak. in general.

Observers see danger of Afghan defeat if we don’t bolster our forces;

But we have only a 10% increase in GIs to spare fromIraq.
YAHOO28Jan

Bushies have 2 fists caught in 2 jars of hornets.

 
Refinery sabotaged in Basra;
so many gangs run amok,(now that Brits have BUGGED OUT)
‘Who WOULDN’T be suspected?”
LATIMES28jAN
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/middleeast/la-fg-iraq16jan16,1,5344397.story

 
Sunni countries fear Iran Retaliation:
if US or Israel bombs Iran.
But Iran ‘assures’ them that its
‘precision’ missiles could hit ONLY GI bases.
SeattlePI,28JAN

(Why wouldn’t Iran retaliate against oil facilities in SaudiArabia, the leader of anti-Iranian Sunnis? That would spike price of oil, and eventually help revived Iran.)

Why not just nuke Iran? That would send oil sky high; I imagine China has warned US that if they do nuke Iran, China will wreck our bond-market.

 
MALIKI PROBLEM: US goofily let election choose parties,not individuals—
so individual pols have nothing to gain by pleasing their voters.

Now Maliki is main obstacle to peace, say 2 US hawks.
Bush keeps endorsing him publicly
(basically because there are no other candidates backed by a consensus),
tho Malikites defy Bushies.
LATIMES
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-oe-boot28jan28,1,613129.story

Five GIs killed by 1 bomb;2 others killed--
a reminder of how fast casualties could spike again.

 
Works here, BUT…
An observer starts out praising one Afghan region where US tactics seem to work (backing a competent warlord).

But this is just preface to explaining why things are NOT going well elsewhere in Afghanistan.
--Bombs, suiciders are UP.
--Taliban is regaining strength.
--Karzai regime is weak,disorganized.
--Our ‘allies’ aren’t matching our efforts.
--Our generals go for upbeat talk in the midst of downbeat numbers.

--Insecurity is a habit of mind, fear that your village (or hotel) may be attacked,
no matter how infrequently.

DenverPost27Jan,p.3E

 
GIs Would Be MainlyRestricted to Bases
Under Iraqi proposal.
MSNBC27Jan

 
INTER-SHIA WAR?
SADRITE/BADRITE WAR?/
The Shia Badrites controlling Parliament announced that
the Shia Badrite (Mehdi) army was banned, and
its leaders (including Sadr ? ! ) would be arrested.
UNITED PRESS27JAN

 
NO IRAN ATTACK from Iraq, says Parliament.
This shows their worry about real possibility of such an attack.
LATIMES, 27jAN

 
LittleAfghanHope:
A woman who’s been in Afgh. For years
says there’s no hope from Karzai’s govt,
or from coalition arms,
or from internatl. Agencies.

Now no Westerners are safe in their luxury hotels/restaurants.
NYTIMES/26Janp.a23

 
WIPE OUT MUSLIMS?
..as we did the Apaches?
Muslims number over 1000 millions, of every race and color, scattered all over world.

Pakistani Muslims have nukes! And Iran will have them shortly.

Germ war vs. Muslims? They likely have plenty of germs to retaliate.

They control world oil supplies.
-----
No—we can only protect ourselves somewhat from terrorist attacks—
e.g., by inspecting thousands of huge containers entering our ports every DAY !
($700,000 MILLIONS for Pent. planes, missiles, ships are wasted
vs. indidividual, anonymous terrorists.)

Also, we must stop enraging the Muslims who are not yet aligned with terrorists.
Further enraging might turn ‘merely vocal’ sympathizers into
active helpers,
and turn active helpers into
people willing to die and kill as suiciders.

 
CAN IRAQItroopsTakeMosul?—
the last safe hideout for Quaeda.
US is holding back, to see how ready Iraqi troops are
to fight on their own.
HoustonChron.,26Jan

 
100 newUS’allies’killed in month/
presumably by Quaeda.

Fear that this new force will form its own militia, or revert to insurgency.

Strangely, ‘Sunni/Shia leaders’ SAY that Sadrites/Badrites (backed by Iran)
are killing, after perhaps being infiltrated. ??? !!
UnitedPress/24jAN

 
PREPOSTEROUS PENT. $:
Senate finally authorized $700,000 MILLIONS for Pent. In ’08.
Bush will OK this.

USATODAY 23jAN

 
Hundreds of Bushie falsehoods before Iraq invasion.

Should we now trust their excuses for Iran attack?

 
‘reconcile’ dud: the ‘accept-Baathists’ law forced on Iraqi govt. by US
is ‘as clear as mud’.
‘It will not help reconciliation’.
In some ways, it’s harder on ex-Baathists than previous situation.
MSNBC
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22796561/

 
That smarmy hawk F.Zakaria (fMtnNews,22Jan) says the war in Iraq is won. The Sunnis, for many reasons, have basically sided with the Americans—but not with the Shia govt., which has not shown enough willingness to reconcile.

We are in the middle of a civil war, he says; if we leave, it will erupt again. The problem, he says, is that peacekeeping will require far more troops, not fewer.
Simple solution: we hold an international convention, persuade many nations to contribute troops for peace-keeping.

Never mind how long this will take: never mind how many more tens of thousands of NOW-HEALTHY GIs will be killed, blinded, maimed or shell-shocked until this strategy works.

What’s interesting is that the Bushies have been trying to get their puppet-Nato countries to contribute more troops to our failing Afghan project—trying without success.

In other words, our troops are now to suffer and die to BUY TIME (not until the Shia govt gets more pliable, which is not in the cards—but until many nations decide to join us in our quixotic Iraq project.)

In other words, our GIS are to suffer and die to buy time—until pigs fly.

 
MRAPS/ROAD-BOMBS:
Pent. Brags that is is spending $12 billion for safer MRAP vehicles (out of $700 billion authorized for Pent. In ’08.)
So far, 12 total have been hit by bombs, & GIs walked away.

Just over 2k have reached middle-east, for 160k troops.

Problem: MRAPS are like tanks, not conducive to GIs mixing with locals (key to new strategy), so Pent. Honchos are losing enthusiasm. But Sen. Biden points out that reinforced(still unsafe) humvees are also not conducive.

300 bomb attacks per week this month;but few GIs have died this month.
Perhaps bombs are now aimed at Iraqis, not GIs.
USATODAY/21Jan

 
WorldStocksTumble:
US consumer holds up whole industrial world.

--Skepticism about phony
‘recession-prevention’ package from US pols.
REUTERS
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSSP15608620080121

 
HOW MUCH RECONCILIATION NEEDED?
To persuade Sunnis to stop insurgency?
(i.e., to keep US casualties low?)

--pseudo-acceptance of Saddamite insurgents into govt?

--‘Fair Share’ of oil $ to Sunnis?
(Bloody Likely)
OR:
--Sunni fear of US pullout, followed by Shia genocide vs. far-outnumbered Sunnis?
(It may be too late to appease Shia.)
OR: SEPARATION OF POPULATIONS (ethnic cleansing): SunniStan/ShiaStan ?

 
PetraeusWillBeKickedUpstairs?
To prestigious but merely-symbolic NATO head.
(P.has been most effective spokesman
for keeping GIs in Iraq.)
HoustonChronicle21Jan

As NATO chief, P. will have to think of troop-demands
in Afgh, elsewhere than in Iraq
NYTIMES,21Jan

 
OsamaWasUS hero,says son. “He’s not a terrorist!’
(tho son does criticize bombs vs.civilians).
UnitedPress21Jan

 
AFGH. QUAEDA BEST OFF SINCE INVASION:
Afgh.fighting spikes earlier:
The bombing of Kabul hotel,etc., means
earlier winter action than usual from Taleban.

--Observers say the real war is just beginning, not ending.

--Tal.out to spread insurgency, undermine reconstruction,
isolate Kharzai
(allied puppet),alienate locals from Westerners.

--Gates enraged Europeans (doing most fighting).

--Germans,Italians refuse to move to real fight-zones.

--CANADIANS MAY PULL OUT THIS YEAR.

--In April, allies must recommit to fight,OR FACE DEFEAT.
London TIMES-ONLINE/21Jan

 
GENOCIDE OR PARTITIONS?

Hawks used to profess that our pulling out would leave a staging area for Quaeda.
Now that Sunnis seem to have turned against Quaeda, they have a new scenario to give us the horrors: genocide (obviously by Shia vs. far-outnumbered Sunnis.)

A DenverPost writer (20Jan,PERSPECTIVE) says the experts are talking about Sunnis protecting their own community..in other words, about PARTITION. But that word is never mentioned. Genocide can be prevented only by completing the ethnic cleansing that has already cleared most Sunnis out of Baghdad.

Why don’t any top Americans (except Biden) want to discuss ethnic cleansing and partition as the only alternative to genocide? Because they can’t stand the thought of an independent Shiastan, with most population, MOST OF THE OIL, and the only seaport—amply able to defend its territory vs. outnumbered Sunni guerillas—allied with hated Shia Iran.

Ordinary Americans no longer care about what happens to the ‘ungrateful’ Iraqis.
They will force the pols to pull out sooner or later.
Then we likely WILL see the genocide, because the pols refused to face
the alternative, population/separation and partition.

 
Gates vs. Petraeus:
Petraeus will not promise to lower troops beyond 130k in ‘08, to avoid
‘rush to failure’.
Gates now says ‘down to 100k’.
(If he says this publicly before election, GOP is in more trouble.)

But Bush will likely not go down further than 130k while he is in office.
Yahoo News/20Jan
http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20080117/ts_csm/arift

 
House Told ‘NOT till ‘2012’: A Bushie general passed on word from Iraqi honcho that Iraqi forces couldn’t ‘stand alone’ VS. insurgents till 2012.
CBSNEWS/20Jan

In that 5 remaining years, tens of thousands of NOW HEALTHY GIs could be killed, blinded, maimed, shell-shocked.

 
Sadr might end truce/
his thousands of followers could end ‘security lull’.
Top Shia denounces
‘corrupt’ Maliki regime.
Baghdad without warmth, electricity.
SEATTLEPI/20Jan

 
IranBombs’Down’: After saying the number of ‘molten-metal’ bombs was sharply up, now Bushie generals say the number is down.
USATODAY20jAN
Perhaps this sharp oscillation is really due to ups/downs of US plans to bomb Iran (& corresponding need to FAKE EXCUSES.)

 
1500 well-armored MRAP vehicles (5 yrs into war)
go to Iraq or Afgh, to replace death-trap Humvees.
NYTIMES/19JAN

That’s fewer than ONE adequate vehicle for every ONE HUNDRED GIs.

 
Gulf nations fear low-prestige US
could drag them into war with Iran.
Yahoo News, 19Jan

 
1 in 5 BRAIN-INJURED/
Of returning vets, about 1 in 5 have had CONCUSSIONS,
but may not know it,
since Pent. Ignores ‘mild’ brain injuries.
MSNBC

 
AFGHAN WAR JUST BEGINNING/
As allies are not just pursuing dilapidated Taliban,
but now engaging in a real war with REJUVENATED Taliban—
says observer-group.
REUTERS

But our allies have really lost interest in this winless war.

 
FROM COMBAT TO ENABLING?
Bushie generals admit Iraqi army is nowhere near ready to take over.
But they hope our troops can move from combat to 'enabling Iraqi troops'.
UnitedPress

However, remember that our troops are vulnerable to vehicle-attack
in support roles, not just in actual combat.

 
BUSH PERSUASION FAILS in Mideast.
Big Saudi paper says his growling at Iran
‘is not diplomacy in search of peace;
it’s madness in search of war.”

LATIMES

 
RussMayUse Preemptive Nukes !
(‘to defend Russia OR HER ALLIES’)
That means they may nuke another nation if THEY THINK
that nation seriously threatens them.
USATODAY


Question: How reliable is their intelligence? How likely are they to think this WRONGLY?

Before getting indignant, remember that it was Bushies who first threatened, then actually used, preemptive strikes (on Afhg.& Iraq) , involving thousands of tons of bombs. And remember that these strikes were based on lousy intelligence.

And that Pentagon has explicitly allowed for this preemptive-nuke possibility
if WE THINK….
NYTIMES

Suppose we THINK that THEY think we'll attack.
Then we'll THINK they'll attack preemptively.
Then WE'LL bomb first--but not last.

 
MFPs: IRAN?\
An MFP is a molten-metal mortar shell that can pierce a TANK,
let alone a US armored vehicle (e.g., Hummer or new MRAP vehicle).
A small, simple, devastating weapon against
all troops who must be conveyed by vehicle.

Bushie generals say MFPs come from Iran (originally they said they were DESIGNED there—but then it turned out they were used back years ago by Ulster IRA !)

Important point: now Bushie generals say the number used in Iraq has recently increased—
tho they don’t explain why there has been NO corresponding increase
in GIs killed !
-------------
Suppose the number has increased; suppose they are from Iran.
Then we should take this as a warning:
if we bomb the hell out of Iran,
leaving their rulers NOTHING TO LOSE
(Israel is hinting about using nukes!)..

Then Iran will devastate our Iraq troops with weapons like the MFP.

 
PENTAGON VS.
RECESSION-PREVENTION:
The most Feds can afford for R-P is $150 billion; but they’ve authorized shoveling to Pentagon in ’08 nearly $700,000 millions.

(Official view is nearly $500,000 millions.
http://www.defenselink.mil/comptroller/defbudget/fy2008/fy2008_summary_tables_whole.pdf

But another story (which I can’t find right now ) said $700,000 millions…even so…

And here is a story that House passed bill to shovel nearly $700,000 millions to P. in '08. (P. asked for more than $900,000 millions.)
http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=7400

Little of this last amount will work for R-P, since
little goes to ordinary Joes who’d spend it right away.

 
Two versions of 'recession prevention':
--GOP version: more tax breaks for the wealthy--this will NOT quickly up spending, so it will be too late. Indeed, DowJones fell again after Bush announced his version.

--Dem version: give extra money to poor and ordinaries, desperate to spend it immediately! This might work--but GOP will insist on 'compromise', subsidizing also the wealthy. This will cut into money available for the ordinaries, so it will castrate the move.

 
“Conflict could revive” says Us ambass.
“..if govt. can’t revive svcs (e.g., electricity).

He thinks Shia have got sick of fighting (as well as Sunnis). We’ll see.


LondonTimes

Good news—if improvement was NOT from 30k extra troops in SURGE, then removing them won’t cause relapse.

 
75%Secure in Baghdad.
USATODAY 17Jan

One reason might be that the Shia have driven Sunnis out of most of Baghdad.

IF only Baghdad counts (as it does for US TV)
then why can't we pull out GIs NOW?

 
INFLATION BUGABOO:
Defenders of high interest-rates (which benefit the rich)
always chatter about danger of inflation,
just because oil and food prices are up.

But if ordinary people must spend more on these items,
they must spend less on other things—so overall inflation is not the danger.
REUTERS

The danger (as I’ve been saying for months) is DEFLATION, the drop in consumption. And finally this danger is clear to everyone, even to GOP, when DowJones DROPS.

 
JointChiefsVs.Petraeus?
In March, the JointChiefs will present an INDEPENDENT assessment of
how many troops should be pulled from Iraq.

Their assessment will consider factors broader than Petraeus’: e.g.,
weakening of armed svcs., and neglect of Afgh.project,
from heavy Iraq project.
LATIMES
----------
Gates' assessment will come out BEFORE Petraeus' (based only on situation in Iraq)--thus lending the wider judgment more emphasis if they differ.

What's more, Bush has already said he'll go ONLY by Petraeus' judgment--so the wider judgment will pressure BUSH, not just Petraeus.
At least, when disaster happens in Afghanistan,
Gates' team can point the finger squarely at Bush(whatever that's worth).
NYTIMES

 
Years ago, HILLARY VOTED TO LEGITIMIZE WAR WITH IRAQ;

Recently SHE VOTED TO LEGITIMIZE WAR WITH IRAN.

HAWK HILLARY !

BOSTON GLOBE

 
HAS BOMBING WORKED?
PREPOSTEROUS BOMBING: approaches carpet bombing of residential neighborhoods.
MSNBC
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22690090/

Usually, such bombing RECRUITS NEW TERRORISTS.
But this time attacks have dropped.
IF lower level CONTINUES, then it must be admitted that
this time, Brutal bombing may have ‘worked’.

 
Generals' Bushshit !

Stand on their own, but not alone !!!

Bushie generals earlier said most Iraq provinces would be defended by Iraqi forces by end of ’07. Now they say, not so—they have no set timetable.

“The Iraqi forces can stand on their own—but not alone. !!!”

(Problems: lack of leaders, INFILTRATION, poor equipment).

Maliki & Bush now ‘have a common sheet of music’.
(Love those vague metaphors !)

Even tho attacks are way down, generals say
SHIA militia are still attacking, backed by Iran !

TURNS OUT that bill to admit Saddamites into govt. was PROPOSED in Parliament, but after shouting match WAS DELAYED. (US media said it was passed!)

Gen. said govt agreed to pay the Sunni former insurgents US has recruited—but govt. spokesman said
he knew of no such agreement !
REUTERS,17July

 
HowFightTaliban?
US & NATO allies disagree on tactics.
GUARDIAN

(Present tactics are not working.)

 
We clear/They hold/???
Before, we went in and killed Quaeda, then pulled out and they came back.
Now the THEORY is that we’ll clear Quaeda areas,
then the Iraqi army will HOLD the area secure
from Quaeda (and other insurgents).
NewsYahoo

This has been tried before, unsuccessfully. We’ll see if it works this time.

 
NYTIMES (BusinessSection,16Jan) points out that now MIDDLE-CLASS AMERICANS (not just the poor) are falling behind economically.

You’d think, then, that middle Americans would realize their solidarity with the poor against the wealthy owner-class.
And polls show they do resent these wealthy people intensely.

Then why isn’t there a HUGE WAVE of anti-GOP voters?

--Many dumb Americans think the important issues are ‘social-conservative’ issues like abortion and gay-marriage…just not thinking about their economic dilemmas.

--Many not-quite-poor Americans psychologically think they are on the side of ‘Us winners’ (e.g., me & billionaires) NOT ‘those losers’ (the poor).

If you drew a line along net-worth lines, you’d see that middle Americans are about 2 inches above the destitute, while the poorest billionaire is nearly ONE MILE further up!

 
An anthropologist (NYTIMES16Jan) ridicules Bush’s attempts to turn other mideast countries against Iran.
(‘They have been closely related for centuries; e.g., Iran has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in Un.ArabEmirates”).

This Bushie folly is just an example of a deeper problem with US;
--our people are generally not interested in foreign countries;

--so we have VERY few people learned in MiddleEast cultures OR EVEN LANGUAGES.

--and from this tiny number we cannot draw a LARGE ENOUGH cadre of QUALIFIED foreign-policy experts.

In meddling with foreign affairs, we are like
an elephant who doesn’t realize he’s blind,
lunging recklessly near cliffs.

 
IranSanctionsIneffective?
A US audit seems to say so.
REUTERS
Unhappily, this may strengthen the ‘BOMB IRAN’ faction.

 
RECONCILIATION BILL OR NOT?

Expert notes odd fact that in Iraq Parliament,
pro-Baath members criticized the new, (allegedly pro-Baath) bill,
while fierce Baath enemies, Sadrites, praised it.

The devil is in the details.
JUAN COLE

 
Saudis defy Bush ON SAME DAY
he proposes output increase!

Still, we’re selling them billions of dollars
of megatech weapons.
LATIMES

 
US mideast policies FAILING—
despite or because of Bush’s visit.
SURPRISE !

GUARDIAN

 
US GROWLS at Iran DO raise oil futures prices—
and ultimately gas prices in US.

SEATTLEPI

 
50 IraqiCasualties—but who in America cares?
BBChttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7191234.stm

 
Shell-shock epidemic among Afgh.GIs:
Five years plus into the war, the rate of shell-shock among GIs
(now euphemized as ‘post-traumatic-stress-disorder’)
is TEN TIMES higher than at the start of the war.
ABC/Tvnews/15Jan

 
An editorial in NYT SUNDAY MAG (13Jan) notes the SILENCE in America about the war in Iraq (let alone our other war in Afgh!)

It doesn’t mention the main reason the media & pols GET AWAY WITH this silence—that most Americans cared only about the
rate of GIs KILLED every week—they don’t want to hear, and are not told, about those WOUNDED every day. Now that this kill-rate is down, nobody cares about the residual rate of killing/wounding.

The writer sees the possibility of an Iraq ruled by anarchic warlords (as part of Afgh. was ruled before our invasion.) Another possibility is all-out civil war, with possible genocide against the tiny minority of Sunnis by the outnumbering Shia. Do we go back in to stop the genocide?
Our pols disagree.

I’d guess that once we get out, no pols will be able to drag us back into the hellhole we have produced. This writer suggests we might try to use AIRPOWER to separate the warring sides.

After all, that’s what we did in Serbia/Kosovo. We bombed the hell out of Serbia to get the Serbs to stop driving out the Albanian Muslims.
Now the Albanian Muslims are driving out the Serbs from Kosovo. But I doubt we’re going to stop this new ethnic cleansing in Iraq by bombing.

The ultimate outcome will be PARTITION.

 
US sends 3000 more marines to Afghanistan;
unable to BULLY allies into sending more troops,
Bushies hope to SHAME THEM…
MSN http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22659424/BC

Bloody Likely !
Bushies bullied allies into helping to break Afghanistan;
now WE OWN IT.

 
Bushies bend for Saudi Royals:
--Bushies will sell billions of dollars in weapons to Royals;
--Royals refuse to up oil production for Bush !
CBSNEWS

 
Sunni SAUDIS VS. THEIR RULERS:
People like binLaden better than Bush,
and (Shia) Iran better than US !
SeattlePI

 
Iraqis want us out—BUT
Iraqi bureaucrat says we must stay till 2018.
Alone, they can’t defend vs. insurgents till 2012—
vs. foreign invasion, till 2018.
NYTIMES

 
IRAQIS WANT US OUT/
We pretend we’re staying on to help them—
But they don’t think we’re helping them.
InfoClearingHouse

 
BUSH TRIP AIMED AT IRAN WAR, not at peace talks.
CBSNEWS

 
US now paying 70k former insurgents
to help US—
Now wants these put on central govt’s payroll—

But Malikites fear formation of rival army.

US fears that without this move,
its recruits will go back to insurgency.
LATIMES

 
SUNNIS TO REJOIN GOVT. They pulled out earlier in protest.
Now that govt. will accept former Saddamites,
biggest Sunni party says they’ll come back In.

Sadrites willing to talk
about making nice to Sunnis—
but strangely they attack
Shia allies the Kurds for ‘threatening Iraq unity.’

What’s the point? Hell will freeze over before Kurds will back down
from their deFacto secession.
GUARDIAN

 
ISRAEL THREATENS WAR with Iran
to ‘block’ nuke development.
SEATTLEPI
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1107ap_israel_iran.html

Americans should understand
a) that Israel alone can’t defeat Iran,
so US bombing will also be required.
b) That even if US doesn’t bomb,
Iran will retaliate vs. US for Israel bombing,

Since Bushies are joined at the hip with Olmert.

 
IRAQ OIL UP/
Exports up 30% in ’07 (mostly from Shia South).
Iraq has 3d largest oil reserves in world.
SEATTLEPI

Question is: how much of this new wealth went to central govt, and how much was siphoned off by South-Iraq Shia?

If most $ went to Shia, then deFacto PARTITION is already underway.

 
VOICE THREATS COINCIDENCE?
A commander of one of ships ‘threatened’ by Iran PT boats says the explicit voice threat ‘might have been coincidence’
along with the PT boats ‘coming too close’ to our Armada.
ZEE NEWShttp://www.zeenews.com/articles.asp?aid=418071&sid=WOR

 
IRAN THREATENS WORLD,
says goofy Bush. Sounds like he plans to bomb Iran,
with all the disastrous consequences that implies for us .
CNN
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/13/bush.mideast.ap/?iref=mpstoryview
Remember, hawk Hillary voted to legitimize this insane attack.

 
For more on luddite theory (anti-megatech)
click on DLYONS

 
EconomyVital (tied with WAR as concern)
This is good news for Dems..their popularity on staggering Economy
is higher than approval of their war-attitudes.
YAHOO NEWS

Economic concerns now FAR more urgent than war concern.
ABC TVNEWS,14Jan.

 
ANBAR HANDOVER?
Bushies say this former insurgent hideout will be handed over to ‘Iraqi control’
This March!
MSNBC
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22599207/

Which Iraqis? The Shia army of the ‘central government’. One doubts this.
If it is handed over to Sunni local forces, that is signal that US faces prospect of PARTITION, And is ready to hand over Sunni areas
to (secular) Sunni forces.

Only a matter of time before Shia get local control of their huge region
With most population, MOST OIL, and the only seaport.

 
Enemy or Terrorist?
GIs in newly-penetrated insurgent stronghold must decide who (among people denounced by neighbors as terrorists) really are, and who is just a ‘blood-feud’ enemy turned informer.
LATIMES

The ludicrous part is that
these ‘GI detectives’ don’t understand the LANGUAGE !

 
FORGOTTEN WAR
FourHundredAfghan GisDead
SeattlePI
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1104ap_afghan_us_deaths.html

A given GI in Afgh. (the ‘forgotten war’)
has almost the same chance to be killed as one in Iraq.

 
“GIs could stay on for A DECADE” in Iraq, says Bush !!
LondonTimes


That could mean that tens of thousands of NOW-HEALTHY GIs
Could end up killed, blinded, maimed, shell-shocked.

 
“MORE IRAN super-BOMBS in Jan”.--but not many more GI casualties.
That’s odd.
CNN

 
SunnisBack inGovt:
Parliament passed a law allowing low-level Saddamites
(including many competent administrators) back into the govt.
REUTERS
It was dumb to exclude them, without pensions—thus recruiting many into the insurgency.
But it does not follow that it’s wise to readmit them—by now
they may be committed to insurgency, and may work as infiltrators.

 
Euro countries doing well economically, despite huge taxes
and big government.
nytimes

The big difference is that they don’t shovel, as we do, \
$700,000 MILLIONS annually
for weapons USELESS against individual terrorists.

 
LOUSY HEALTH-CARE: We pay more per person for health-care than almost every other nation—but we rank LOWEST among 19 industrial countries in deaths that would have been prevented by good health-care.
MSNBC
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22554235/
It’s understandable (tho not praiseworthy) that US middle-class just shrugs at sufferings of the poor;
but it’s AMAZING how the US middle-class just shrugs at the way wealthy health providers mistreat the MIDDLE CLASS!

 
CIVILIZED PROGRESS in US: A woman raised in So.Chicago remembers the openly racist songs (anti-black/anti-semite)--
songs the anglo children sang with no feelings of guilt:
One couplet: OH THE DANCE THEY DO IS ENOUGH TO KILL A JEW.

And the Irish (arrogant from their control of Chi. Politics) asked,
“Where in paper do you find Polish obits? Under ‘CivicImprovements’ !”

In some dimensions, Americans have become far more civilized.
We may shoot each other, but we’re not so eager to insult.

 
Pent.ClimbsDown from claim that the PTboats threatened to blow up US armada.
Pent. admit they sewed together the pictures and the dubious voice-tape.
(Iran claims the pictures were from old files.)

Pent. claim ships were in international waters--very close to Iran shore--
Were they?
GUARDIAN
http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,2239119,00.html

 
40 tons of bombs—for what?
US dropped these bombs in FIRST TEN MINUTES of airstrikes on the edge of Baghdad, which continued all day.
The strikes were guided by ‘intelligence’ from former insurgents
who now say they have sided with US vs. Quaeda..

What did these airstrikes accomplish?
20 ‘Quaeda’ corpses were found afterward.
US denied any civilian deaths, but this was not independently confirmed.
SEATTLEPI

 
CheapCar:NIGHTMARE
“Suppose everyone in your position felt free to act as you do?”
This is a classical ethical question.

New $2500 Indian car puts tens of millions of new people’in our position’.
They will feel free to act as we do.

Mankind is doomed by megatechnology.

For more luddite theory, click on
DLYONS

 
My letter printed in USATODAY /9 million readers)

 
AUTISM:Genetic or Pollution?
With great fanfare, scientists linked a genetic defect with one percent of autism victims.
BUSINESS WEEK
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jan2008/tc2008019_887629.htm?chan=technology_technology+index+page_top+stories
But a genetic defect CAN’T EXPLAIN a sudden RISE in autism cases;
that can be explained only by pollution.

 
Everyone agrees that SOMETHING has worked to lower Iraq violence. But what is it exactly that worked?
Bushies and their fans say it was Bush’s brilliant move
to the ‘Petraeus strategy’ of winning hearts and minds instead of just blowing bodies to bits.

This would of course displease the fans of AIRPOWER;
and indeed an air-general has protested to NYTIMES about
giving all the credit to the ‘Petraeus’ strategy.

He makes some good points:
1) People don’t realize that we spiked up airstrikes in ’07 FIVE HUNDRED PERCENT over ’06.
So we might as well say it was AIRPOWER that did the job.

2) Mixed neighborhoods got ‘ethnically cleansed’ (purified of minorities) so there was less Sunni/Shia conflict. Pehaps THIS is what ‘worked’.

3) This air-general worries that we might think we should now emphasize only anti-insurgent campaigns, where airpower has a smaller role.

4) But, he notes correctly, we should have learned from Iraq
NOT to try OCCUPYING hostile lands and facing invincible insurgencies.

5) Instead, we must keep making planes,etc., to ward off attacks on ‘our interests’.
------------
It’s in this last point that the general wanders away from facts.

Terrorist attacks on our Homeland are the greatest threat now to ‘our interests’. And billion-dollar toys like ships, planes and missiles were SHOWN to be irrelevant for Homeland Protection on 9/11,
and in the terrorist attack in London.

However, the air-general needn’t worry; our govt.
in ’08 will shovel $700,000 MILLIONS to the useless Pentagon;
he should have all the money he wants for these toys.

 
‘WE’D NOT RECOGNIZE QUAEDA’
even if they walked between our vehicles,
saysUS honcho.
But we count on the Sunni turncoats to identify Quaedas.
NEWSWEEK


In other words, we’ll attack anyone
a Sunni‘informer’ SAYS is Quaeda.
Let’s hope they’re reliable.

One optimistic note: the horrific Quaeda attacks on Sunni informants probably increases number of sincere informants.

 
WhyRant atPTBOATS?
Bushies don’t NEED excuse to bomb Iran. Who’d stop them?

PT-excuse WON’T WORK. Who’d believe Bushie liars
(except Israel pawns who want bombing already?)

Real deterrent vs. Bushie bombing is NOT
lack of legitimacy;
it’s worry over Iran’s fearsome RETALIATORY powers
(esp. vs. our Iraq GIs.)

 
“More than just firepower”
US will use more than just firepower in its new anti-qaeda offensive; it will try to use intel from Sunnis who’ve allegedly turned vs. Qaeda.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/346622_iraq09.html

They better rely on the intel, doubtful as it is.
Our stupendous firepower hasn’t worked.

 
Photos show PT boats near our mighty armada.
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=4108480&page=1
Photos don’t show if our ships were in Iranian waters.

 
What Should the Sunni Want?
--the prevailing union of ‘one Iraq’,
dominated inevitably by the huge Shia majority (3 to 1 over the Sunnis)?
This is the ‘legitimate, constitutional’ regime US pretends to favor.

--or perhaps this façade,
with actual power held by the [Bushie-backed] Sunni sheiks,
who would eventually rule as individual warlords clashing with each other,
like the warlords in Afghanistan (outside the region run by Taliban)
before the invasion?

No oil would come from this anarchic region—but then no real oil has yet been found there anyway.

--They want a share of the oil-money from the oil-soaked lands
of Shia & Kurds—
but bloody likely they’ll get much of that money,
from two groups who hate them.
----------
Truth is, they’d do less badly under PARTITION, with autonomy given toSunniland, and with a central Sunni govt. running the impoverished area.

Partition will be the inevitable result anyway
when the US pulls out
(after, perhaps, declaring ‘victory’.)
The Kurds already have deFacto autonomy,
and the Shia will eventually demand the same—

they will then have a large region with the most population, BY FAR THE MOST OIL, the only seaport.

They will be supported by their Shia neighbor Iran
(as perhaps the Sunni will be backed by SaudiArabia).

Partition is the inevitable outcome—
and one the Sunni, as well as the Shia,
OUGHT TO DESIRE.

 
SIX IN TEN AMERICANS DISTRUST BUSH ON TERRORISM:
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/29554/us_upset_with_bush_on_terrorism_civil_liberties/
That was previously the one point Bush was trusted on ! that will affect GOP sycophants who endorse Bushism.

 
IRAQI ARMY: Commando school: 50 passed (vs. 35 last year)
but 106 flunked.
In Feb.,US honcho said Iraq army could take over in the Fall.
But now a govt. official says
it will take TEN YEARS!
And Pentagon report said it would take ‘years’ to develop an adequate officers’ corps.

Govt. police force is even worse,composed almost completely of Shia, and infiltrated by militia members.
LATIMES

 
Stocks Down After Iran boat story:
After Bushie warning about
5 PT boats
‘threatening’ mighty US armada,
US stocks dropped.http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270/

 
PAK.won’t allowUStroops to operate in-country.
REUTERS
Bushies have too few troops in Afgh. To ward off Taliban;
but can’t resist sticking fist into hornet’s nest of Pakistan.

 
Seven bombs near Baghdad cause over 50 casualties.
LATIMES

 
fOR MORE ON TERRORIST DANGERS FROM HUGE SHIP CONTAINERS,
SEE THE HILL

 
Iranian boats ‘harass’ MIGHTY US ships.
5 small boats allegedly harassed 3 US ships,
allegedly in ‘international waters’ in the strait of Hormuz.
GUARDIAN 7jAN
Which is more likely?
a) that 5 Iranian boat commanders went simultaneously nuts?
Or (B)that Bushies are lying again, trying to find excuses for bombing Iran?

 
WHY WE CAN’T SAVE PAKISTAN!
The cover of TIME magazine said
“Nobody could save Bhutto; why we MUST save Pakistan!”

But the fact that Bushies dumbly sent in poor Bhutto to her doom, trying to ‘save Pakistan’—this fact illustrates why we can’t save any foreign countries—

because of our govt’.s IGNORANCE about these countries. We simply don’t have a large enough cadre of youths knowledgeable about foreign languages and cultures to draw out a competent cadre of foreign-policy experts.

Americans are simply not very interested in foreign places—not until we’re losing wars.
Even then, our all-too-representative rulers don’t know what to do.

We should quit meddling in foreign affairs; we should concentrate on HomelandDefence—e.g., by inspecting the thousands of huge containers that enter our ports every day.

 
BLOGGING DURING LULL:

There is now definitely a lull in large-scale violence in Iraq.

No reason to think this is permanent, or achievement of our surge:

--Sadr has declared a temporary truce with his Shia/Sunni enemies.

--Quaeda overplayed its hand, enraged Sunni allies. Its small-scale attacks on Sunni ‘collaborators with invader’ will likely backfire.

On the other hand, situation in AFGHANISTAN
is deteriorating fast.
But this war remains largely invisible to Americans.

Theme of this blog has been for five years (over 5000 posts) the fact that
these wars are UNWINNABLE, that we must bug out
(sooner the better, later the worse).

For now, there is little NEW news from mainstream media to confirm this ONGOING fact of unwinnable wars—so there will be little NEW blogging by Lyons.

 
WHERE TALIBAN RULES BY NIGHT
MISSION IMPOSSIBLE:
Quarter of Afgh.ruled byTaliban atNight

Only 50k allied troops
trying hopelessly to counter Taliban.
RAW STORY

 
SMALL-SCALE VIOLENCE WIDESPREAD in Iraq,
mainly against Sunnis who have sided with America vs. Quaeda.

WALLst.Journal

 
KEEP GIs in Iraq for 100 years?
that would be fine, says Mccain.
http://www.motherjones.com/mojoblog/archives/2008/01/6735_mccain_in_nh_wo.html

It’s upsetting to think this loon is a leading GOP contender
for the White House.

Before the invasion, his staff wrote that the Iraqis would be SO grateful
when we ‘liberated’ them
that they would persuade the rest of the Muslim world
to cease resenting America and the West.

 
NUKES WORST THREAT?
NUKE TERRORISM WORST FEAR OF AMERICANS
UnitedPress.5Jam

This may be a mistake. A GERM-WAR attack might well kill more Americans than an A-bomb on one city.

 
BUSHIE IRAN STRATEGY CRUMBLING/ other gulf states
(which Bushies have tried to get to isolate Iran)
are making nice to Iran.
a) they don’t want a US/Iran war which woud mess up the oil business.
b) They’re so rich (& US is so bankrupt) that our economic pressures don’t work.
CSMONITORhttp://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0104/p09s03-coop.html

 
US FUNDS NON-SECURITY JOBS/ picking up trash, etc.
US antes up $155 million, with Iraq govt. matching that amount.
(each worker gets $300 a month.)

This pilot project is to keep former insurgents from reverting to insurgency, which pays them (US generals say).
SEATTLEPI

 
WHAT WORKS?
A letter to USATODAY (4Jan) says correctly that moral reasoning doesn’t work with terrorists, because they don’t share our basic moral principles.

But then the writer sees as the alternative,
‘sheer military resolve and might.’

By this he presumably means planes, missiles, tanks, armies,etc. But we’ve learned in Afghanistan, Iraq, and London that these assets don’t work against individual, anonymous terrorists any more than does moral reasoning.

We must face the ugly fact that NOTHING works to prevent terrorist attacks altogether. We must invest in DEFENSIVE measures (like inspecting huge containers that enter our ports by the thousands each day!)

Instead, we shovel $700,000 millions to the useless Pentagon, and
only $35 Billion to Homeland Defense!

 
SADRITES,BADRITES IN PEACE MEETING
Followers of 2 Shia parties have been fighting, threatening civil war
in future Shialand (which will have most Iraqis, MOST OIL, the only seaport, allied with Iran.)
CBSNEWS

 
HEADLINES ON IOWA: This is the chance to detect bias in your local newspaper, by reading the headlines on Obama’s victory in Iowa.

The Rocky Mountain News doesn’t mention him in its top headline. USATODAY mentions Obama parallel to Huckaby. CNN put Huckaby name AHEAD of Obama, as did Houston Chronicle.
FOX of course referred to Clinton’s ‘graciously’ accepting defeat.

Only NYTIMES correctly refers to Obama’s TRIUMPH (he knocked hawk Hilary to 3d place !)

One wonders if news of threatened $4 gas had an effect.
Hilary voted to authorize indirectly an attack on Iran which would spike oil prices far above their present $100-a-barrel level.
(She has refused to admit error in backing IRAQ war !)

Pentagon & war corporations lost this 1st round. But with their trillions, they’re hardly finished.

 
AFGHAN OPIUM POPPIES:
Afghan opium production to rise:
now worth $4000 millions.

20-60% of Taliban budget is provided by poppy money.

Latest violence in Afghan is worrying because there used to be a winter lull.
YAHOO NEWS

 
MORE DANGEROUS THAN QUAEDA?
Sunnis who now say they’re allied with US vs. Qaeda complain that
Shia govt. won’t integrate their fighters into Iraq army.

But Govt. honcho says threat of insurgents infiltrating army is
‘more dangerous’ than Quaeda.
NYTIMES

However, a prominent Shia pol cautiously endorsed the Sunni volunteers,
while offering other criticisms of Maliki's govt.
SEATTLEPI

 
WHO BENEFITS? In the post just below, the conflict was noted between Shia BADRITES (closely allied with Iran) and Shia SADRITES (followers of Sadr.)

Suppose we ask WHO BENEFITS from failure to unite Shia in one Shialand? This ministate would be somewhat allied with Iran.
But Iran (and all other oil-producing states) would benefit most
if huge amounts of IRAQI oil never started flowing again
into international markets.[Oil has just hit $100 a barrel].
And civil war among Iraqi Shia would prevent that price-lowering flow.

But Iranians' Shia loyalty would move them to FAVOR united Shialand.

 
FIVE IRAQS:
1)THE Green Zone: the present ‘government’s’ writ does not run outside this tiny area.
2)The Sunnis (who won’t accept a Shia-run Iraq).
3)The Shia BadrItes (the army of the ‘govt’, dominated by Iran, and motivated irrationally by desire for revenge vs. Sunni.
4)The Sadrites who brag that they stayed in Iraq during Iraq/Iran war instead of fleeing to Iran as did Badrite leaders.

5)The Kurds who dream foolishly of complete independence instead of the deFacto independence they now enjoy.
SCOTT RITTER IN INFOclearinghouse
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article18981.htm
Perahaps a 6th Iraq is the Sunni Qaeda, weakened but not eliminated by the Saddamite Sunnis turning against it(paid for now by US.)
SO WHAT?
If Ritter is right, then even partition will not bring peace to Iraq.
But one thing is certain:
A CONTINUED US PRESENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE NOTHING TO PEACE !

 
One bomb, Seventy Casualties in Baghdad.
Voice of America

 
Oil Price Rises/fear of US attack on Iran.
Oil on way to stable $100 a barrel.
If we attacked,
one-fourth of world’s oil supply
would be at risk.

http://www.xak.com/main/newsshow.asp?id=81121

 
FORGOTTEN WAR:
AFGHAN TROUBLES (over 5 yrs after our invasion!):
--Violence is higher than ever.

--110 GIs(OUT OF 24K) KILLED.
(’07 highest level ever.)A given Afghan GI
has about as much chance of being killed as one in Iraq.

--110 killed among Brits, Canadians, other invaders.

----civilians upset by number of innocents killed by invading allies.

--Opium prod.at all-time high
(93% of world’s opium comes from Afgh.!)
Much of this prod. funds Taliban.

--Large swaths of country are out of govt.’s control

--Puppet govt seen as unable to provide basic svces,
as corrupt, unable to protect its own police.

--Still, Bushies say US progress is ‘promising’ !
SEATTLEPI