Dan Lyons

A NEW LEBANON? Lebanon is a country divided into hostile Muslim and Christian sects.Decades of bloody civil war were stopped only by 'dictatorial' Syrian intervention. (This has now been blocked; civil war may loom again.)

Yugoslavia's ethnic and sectarian populations also dissolved into civil war when their dictator Tito died. (Hostile passions there are now temporarily controlled by dictatorial foreign 'peacekeepers'. English dictators have tried to keep the peace between Ulster Protestants and Catholics.

All over Africa, tribes slaugher each other--unless both sides are controlled by a dictator.

In our own Southern States, establishing racial peace required Lincoln's INVASION (fiercely resisted); then there was a century of relapse; then another federal invasion was needed in 1960's (not much resisted).

Observers of the world know that anarchic, unending civil-war is usually a worse evil than the evils of tyranny. But Bushies weren't very observant.
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IRAQ is also a country hopelessly divided between the Shiite and Sunni sects of Muslims. (The section dominated by the Kurds is already in a state of deFacto secession.) Bushies may not have realized the depth of this division..they didn't realize many things!

For centuries, the Sunnis ruled the Shia ( 60% of the population!) with an iron fist--first as pawns of the Ottoman empire, then of the British empire--then, after 1950, under Sunni Iraqi dictators.

Now the goofy Bushie invaders have introduced simple-minded majoritarian democracy. (Did they even understand that the theocratic Shias were 60% of population?)

The Shia are still being slaughtered daily by Sunni insurgents; mortars were lobbed into Shia neigborhoods yesterday ! And of course the sacred Shia 'GoldenDome' shrine was bombed last week.

Understandably, the 'ruling' Shia are not in the mood to make the huge concessions necessary to get the Sunni minority so involved in the new government as to weaken the insurgency. (the Bushie fantasy.)
(Sunni pols still won't come back to negotiating table, as of Tuesday.)
What lies ahead? Bloody ethnic cleansing (minorities chased out of the mixed areas) followed by secession of the Shia region--which will have most Iraqis, most of the oil, and Iraq's only seaport--a ministate closely allied with our great bogeyman, Iran !

For a good perspective on this tragic impasse, see LATIMES analysis by B. Daragahi.

ELEPHANT IN LIVING-ROOM: Finally someone notices:
The $439,000 millions shovelled to Pentagon this year (excluding costs of our 2 current wars ! and totalling more than our whole federal deficit) cannot be justified by the 'War on Terror'--since the resources needed for this conflict are NOT the Pentagon's snazzy bombers etc.

Pentagon may be preparing for conventional war with China (!) --but this should be openly discussed, not smuggled in as part of anti-terror war.
UnitedPress

INSURGENTS ATTACK IRAQIS 'apparently at will, and with a steady rythm."
About 8 army/police killed each day, and about 20 civilian casualties each day. UnitedPress

In other words, our native militia can barely protect themselves, let alone civilians.
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CURFEW ENDS; TWENTY KILLED TODAY (27FEb); families fleeing from hostile neighbors; Sunnis still won't rejoin 'forming-government' talks.
Boston.com
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MORTAR ATTACK ON SHIA NEIGHBORHOODS kills 15, wounds dozens. alJazeera,27Feb

IRAQ CHAOS DESTABILIZES REGION, BOOSTS IRAN'S POWER:
[ NYTIMES ]

8 of Iraq's neighbors have Sunni majorities, but large Shia minorities--often mistreated and sullen.

In Iraq civil war, refugees AND TROUBLE could spread to other nations.

WE NOW HAVE NO OPTIONS in Iraq, says former Pentagon intelligence chief. [ USATODAY ] We can't back 'all/Iraq' army, because it's really a Shia militia. To involve ourself might well convince one side that we're backing the other side.

"We say we'll stand down as they stand up," commented another expert wryly. "Well, it turns out they're standing up to fight other Iraqis !"

Both Sunnis & Shia complain about US role since the shrine was bombed.

It's said we must pull back our troops into garrisons. But then what good can we do ? In fact, what good ARE we doing?

Are we to conclude that Pres. Bush's seven phone-calls to Iraqi leaders haven't solved the problem?

AFTER NASTY HAMAS WAS FREELY/FAIRLY ELECTED BY PALESTINIANS, US & Israel announced they would see that funds were cut off from Palestine govt, to starve out the nasty new rulers. In fact, Israel cut off payments of taxes that formerly went to Palestine govt.

Rice shot around the Middle East, trying to get others to cut off funds. NO DICE from Egypt, Saudi Arabia. Even U.S. glumly agrees to continue humanitarian aid for now.

Now EURO commission has pledged $144 millions in continuing aid to Palestine, at least until Hamas is installed as govt. in 5 weeks. BLOOMBERG

Diplomatically, Bushies are NO SUPERPOWER !

SADR SURGES TO TOP: Even before last week's crisis, Moqtadr Sadr displayed his strong influence--by his followers winning 30 seats in the assembly, by his forcing in his candidate Jaafari (over great opposition) as PrimeMinister.
But the bombing of the GoldenDome shrine in Samarra REALLY pushed him into leadership. [ TheAge (Australia) ]

His Madr militia attacked some Sunni mosques in retaliation; then he returned from Lebanon and joined Sunni clerics in demanding a cessation of attacks--which then mainly happened!

Sadr is bitterly anti-American--having twice led open attacks on our GIs !--and is allied with various anti-American groups in MiddleEast (notably Iran!). His militia basically rule many of the Iraq streets. Even 'Pope' Sistani daren't oppose him openly [besides which, people say they are cousins! ]He has open lines to the Sunni insurgents, so he may be needed to implement any truce.

He wants us out (as do practically all Iraqis) and WE WANT TO GET OUT--so what's the problem? Bushie vanity is the problem..they can't figure how to 'declare victory' and disguise their bugout.

"WE STILL HAVE TIME " to avert Iraq civil war, said a prominent independent think-tank--JUST BEFORE THE 'GOLDEN DOME' EXPLOSION ! [InternatlCrisisGroup, cited by CNN.COM

"U.S. troops...are more part of the problem than they can ever be part of the solution." Still, they must not be pulled out hastily--because they are the only way the present low-level sectarian conflict can be stopped from escalating into a full civil war.

The present constitution must be scrapped; the provisions allowing for a Shiite ministate must be scrapped; a national unity govt must be formed, and Sunni/Arabs must be guaranteed a fair share of the oil money--even though their territory has almost no oil.

When you read their estimate of (improbable) measures needed to avoid civil war, then you appreciate the relevance of their injunction to the world to get ready for civil war if it happens.

"TRAINING POLICE LOYAL TO CENTRAL GOVT IS KEY.." said Bushie honcho. Boston.com Yes, just as walking on the water would have helped people in NewOrleans.

There's no way our people (who don't even speak the language!) can stop infiltration (by insurgents, let alone by men loyal to the Shiite or Kurdish militias) of the police-being-trained.

This guy said all the fuss there is no reason we can't pull out troops. (Pentagon admits that not one native battalion is ready to take on insurgents without US backing.) "As the President said: 'We will stand down as they stand up!' " Rather, we'll bug out as we pretend that 'they' are standing up for central government. Just like Vietnam.

START OF ETHNIC CLEANSING? Several hundred Shia have fled from one Sunni neighborhood in Baghdad. (Some Sunnis have also fled from unfriendly neighbors.)

More attacks on Shia. 2 GIs killed by road-bomb.

Sadr calls for Sunni/Shia unity AGAINST U.S. !
REUTERS
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MORTARS SLAMMED INTO SHIA NEIGHBORHOOD in Baghdad after dark Sunday. Dozens of casualties around the country, including one GI shot in Baghdad. However, no more attacks on mosques. ABC//NEWS
Oops--CNN says that 2 Sunni mosques were attacked.

SOBERED, WINGLESS HAWK: Ancient right-winger Bill Buckley in NATIONAL REVIEW admits that our Iraq project must now be judged a failure.

He says, though, that it was based on 2 reasonable postulates:1)that Sunnis & Shia could learn to get along; and2) that we could train Iraqi militia to counter the insurgents.

In other words, we heaped up a lot of lettuce in the tigers' cage, but they were still mean and hungry. That's not OUR Fault.

Buckley hopes we won't give up our postulates, even though we must admit they didn't work out here.

But he doesn't advert to our basic postulate: that a country whose people--even their elite--are pretty uninterested in, and incredibly ignorant of, other cultures--that such a country,just because it has lots of H-bombs, is called by a Mandate of Heaven to meddle in a world it doesn't understand.

One fears that this basic postulate WILL be cleaved to in the future, and we will lunge into other needless, pointless, heartless, brainless slaughters.

A survey shows that US 'super-cool' export products like Coke are no longer tops in young-people's preference around the world. ABCNews

One reason of course is that other countries have learned clever advertising tricks also. But one BIG reason might be the ugliness of the face the Bush regime is showing on America: not just ruthless, but--as Katrina showed--also incompetent.

Americans tend to say, "Who cares what the outside world thinks?" That's why our youths won't learn foreign languages--"let them learn English!"
But we should face it: our staggering, growing trade deficit shows that our puny exports can't match our insatiable greed for imports.

American workers are even less marketable than American products. Jobs here are being automated or outsourced. We are in the midst of the ancient Greek tragic process: Success, Conceit, Disaster.

Young Americans had better get humble fast, and scramble.

WHAT WOULD IRAQ CIVIL WAR LOOK LIKE?
(worst case scenario):
--It might involve civil war among shia militias !
--It might pull in Iran on the Shia side.
--It might pull in Sunni neighbors on the Sunni side; and it might trigger Shia rebellions in countries like SaudiArabia (2 million Shia IN OIL-SOAKED AREA!)
--it might provoke Saudis to go for nukes.
--it might bring in Turks to sqash a separate Kurd nation.
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No doubt the leaders on both sides have been sobered by the chaos since the shrine-explosion. But as Lincoln noted about US civil war: "Nobody wanted it--but it happened." NYTIMES

Remember when Bushies tried to justify invasion because they said that Saddam's regime might 'destabilize Mideast' ? !

HOW MANY IRAQI ARMY UNITS COULD OPERATE AGAINST INSURGENTS AFTER WE BUGOUT?
First Pentagon said, 3 battalions--then 1 unit.

Now they say NO UNITS ! [WashingtonPost ]

They say more units are able to fight backed up by GIs. That's supposed to lower GI casualties, but these have not been notably lowered.
We'll see in the growing inter-sectarian conflict how many of these Shia troops stay loyal to central govt. and how many show openly their loyalty to Shia militia.
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At least 50 dead on Saturday, in spite of daytime curfew in several cities. 190 casualties since GoldenShrine bombing. A bomb in Shia Holy City of Narjaf (intended for another sacred shrine!), and a Shiite family wiped out. (Those attacks will keep alive Shia desire for vengeance.) GUARDIAN

Sunnis say 180 Sunni mosques have been attacked. They complain that Shia militia wander around openly without any interference from Americans or 'govt' forces.WashPost

IN ALL, TWO THOUSAND GIs have suffered brain damage in Iraq, or amputation of limbs, or have been crippled for life. UnitedPress

THEY'RE BLAMING US, NOT EACH OTHER!
An Iraqi scholar says that popular feeling blames US, not the other sectarian side for the shrine bombing and the retaliation vs. Sunni mosques,etc.
GUARDIAN
This may be good for calming sectarian killings temporarily, but not for acceptance of US presence!
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The biggest damage may be to US dream of Shiite political concessions to appease Sunnis--mainly for Shia to give up control of police. Sunnis dropped out of negotiations, demanding APOLOGIES from Shia for attacks on Sunnis retaliating for Shrine explosion. Bloody likely.

BOMB IN SAUDI ARABIA: A bomb exploded in the central Saudi oil facility, but did no damage. But just the story jumped up world oil prices by 4% in one day. REUTERS

The attack is an upsetting symbol that the main nation on which depends the FirstWorld's oil supply is no longer safe. JuanCole ( a distinguished US scholar on Middle East.)

Cole also worries that Shiite 'Pope' Sistani (who has till now restrained Shia urges toward very understandable revenge) has now, after the shrine bombing, said that if the 'government' didn't protect the sacred shrines, 'the believers' would.

That sounded like a call to arms for Shiites, and was interpreted that way by some Sunni leaders. Comprising 55-60% of Iraqis, and being the main troops in the 'all/Iraq government's' militia TO WHICH WE HAVE GIVEN MILITARY TRAINING !-- the Shia could wreak havoc in Iraq.

And one mustn't forget that the IRAN regime, next door, is devoutly Shiite, equally outraged over the destruction of this super-sacred shrine.

Looking back we can see that US troops should have supervised and guaranteed the safety of this Shia shrine stuck vulnerably in Sunni territory.

Various Iraqis have blamed US for shrine explosion. Unreasonable?
Iraq is not really a sovereign nation. A conquering country is responsible for police performance in the conquered country. (We fired Iraqi police-force, without replacing it !)

SADR said: "If Iraq had real sovereignty, this shrine-attack would never have happened."

We haven't protected oil facilities; we haven't prevented mutual slaughter. And we haven't protected the sacred shrines--though Bushies should have known that any attack on a shrine was likely to trigger civil war.

What good are our troops doing there? Small wonder that a large majority of Iraqis want us OUT !

" 'It' worked in Poland, so..." Under Reagan, US secretly set out to overthrow Commie regime in Poland. They had the help of the Polish Pope! And it worked.
Now the Bushies have PUBLICLY announced a $75 million program to undermine the mullahs' regime in Iran.[ UnitedPress ]
Of course now any Iranian who criticizes the mullahs or defends the Americans will be labeled a US pawn. How can Bushies be so dumb?

But perhaps they're not THAT dumb. Perhaps the real function of this program is to set up covert activities preceding an armed attack on Iran. It's still pretty dumb. Iranian leaders will be ready for this approach also.

INFANTRY ROBOTS: GREAT PROGRESS. UnitedPress
Hundreds of magic robots in use in Afghanistan & Iraq. Soldier throws one into a suspect building; it sets itself up and scouts the building without the soldier risking his life.

Soon, the element of male courage will be obsolete in war--more or less--just as male muscles have become obsolete in industry--as courage already is obsolete among B-52 crews who jump into their planes in Kansas after breakfast, fly over to bomb hell out of Afghanistan, then back for supper with their children.

Robots will ride dangerous roads; robots will detect road-bombs ahead of time. Story is, these have already been invented for a while--but Army hasn't yet ordered any!

If Bushies had only waited a few years, they could have 'occupied' Iraq using mainly robots, without the GI casualties which have eroded war-support here. Dumbbells !

Such robots will also enable Pentagon to stage an open coup here in U.S. homeland. American soldiers wouldn't fire on Americans; American robots won't hesitate. Black humor: imagining the gun-nuts who promise to defend our freedom, facing an impassive line of robots.

LOOK FOR SCHISM BETWEEN BUSHIES & CONGRESS GOP.
Bush is now a hopeless loser with all but his devout followers,[rurals, born-agains, men, marrieds, investors ] and even they are slowly showing disenchantment.
Congressional elections in 8 months; in the past, a miserably unpopular President has dragged down his Congressional henchmen. So GOP Congressmen must be looking for excuse to show themselves independent of WhiteHouse.

The excuse may come from the rather silly fight over UnitedArabEmirate company taking over management of some US ports. This move just symbolizes the Bushies' unconcern with HomelandSecurity. More and more GOP legislators are publicly disagreeing with Bush--and Bush is threatening to VETO any restrictions passed by the GOP Congress!

GOP legislators might be smart to pass restrictions tough enough to provoke Bush, and then to join Dems in a 2/3 vote OVERRIDING THE VETO!
That might fool voters so that the legislators don't get dragged down with Bush this November.

Would Dems be smart to refuse to join in the overriding? (perhaps by abstaining?)

IRAN VULNERABLE? It turns out that only a small majority of Iranians are Farsi-speaking Persians. So the USMarineCorpsIntelligence is investigating unrest among the minority groups (e.g., Kurds & Arabs).
Some suspect that marines are getting ready to invade the oil-regions of Iran (near to Iraq border.) FinTimes

'OUR' IRAQI POLICE: underequipped, not well-trained, unable to protect themselves from insurgents, infiltrated by unscreened recruits, soaked in corruption....REUTERS

SEVEN GIs KILLED ON WEDNESDAY BY 2 ROAD-BOMBS: REUTERS
A 'magic' bomb-destroyer has been invented, but HAS NOT BEEN ORDERED YET by the Army !
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THE BLAME GAME: over the shrine explosion: [REUTERS ]
--A Sunni chief blamed SISTANI ! (who \--unusually--did say, "If government will not defend shrines, then believers will." Trouble is that, with outraged Shia, 'defend' really means 'avenge' !)

Sunni delegates pulled out of conference on 'unity govt. Bloody likely now.

--alQaeda of course blamed Shiite leaders ! (saying they blew up the shrine to justify killing Sunnis, and promising 'shocking response'.)

--Iran pres. blamed zionists & Westerners.

ZARQAWISTS TRIUMPH:
BACKGROUND: Till now Sunni insurgents have killed random Shia WHOLESALE (dozens in the last few days!), while Shia have killed random Sunnis only RETAIL (even tho we've been giving military training to troops of fictitious 'all/Iraq' militias--actually Shia & Kurd men loyal to their sectarian militias--so far they've been murdering Sunnis only in a retail fashion.) 1000 bodies a month arrive in morgues, just in Baghdad!

There has been talk of Saddamite insurgents (who want GIs out, dreaming that they then can again run Iraq) turning against their erstwhile allies, the alQaeda followers of Zarquawi (who want fundamentalist Sunni Islam to take over everywhere). Americans have probably offered the Saddamites open control of the central Sunni/Arab region--when the deFacto secessions of Kurdland and Shialand are implemented.
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BUT NOW: the GoldenDome of a sacred Shia shrine has been blown up ! [ FORBES ]
Of course the Shia officials of the country, and the moderate Sunni leaders, have condemned this attack; and Sistani has called for peaceful responses; but that won't help.

Attempted attacks on (now heavily-guarded) Sunni mosques have already happened. We can now expect wholesale Shia attacks on random Sunnis, and response-attacks by Sunnis on Shia. We can expect full 'ethnic cleansing' (minorities driven out of mixed areas).

Above all, we can expect no progress in the US dream of a compromise govt. respecting Sunni interests (hoping this would pacify Sunni insurgents ! ) Shia will certainly insist that their people will continue controlling the Interior (police) and Defense(army) departments.

Finally, we can expect Saddamite insurgents to stay aligned with (otherwise cornered) Zarqawistas. So this counts as a (bloody & temporary) Z triumph.

(At first, secular Saddamites might recoil in horror at the Zs' craziness, and turn against them. But then, if/when Shia start murdering Sunnis wholesale, it seems likely that all 4 different Sunni-insurgent branches will 'circle the wagons' and reunite.)
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SADR has vowed revenge against 'Sunni Insurgents'. (Till now, he has sided with Sunnis vs. his Shia allies on many issues.) Now his armed militia have taken over the streets of 'Sadr City' in Baghdad. REUTERS
God help any Sunni living in that area!
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Predictably, some Muslim speakers (& some rioters) blamed the explosion on US. [UnitedPress,22feb ] In fact, quite a few leaders (including an Iranian mullah) are blaming U.S. ! [ INDEPENDENT ]

Well, what would Bushies have to gain by a civil war? This would just hasten the situation they dislike the most: a deFacto independent Shia region, with most of the population, a seaport, AND MOST OF THE OIL-- a region allied with neighboring Shia IRAN ! (But that doesn't absolve Bushies of NEGLIGENCE in policing Iraq, in guarding the shrines.)

No, it seems that the only group with something to gain from enraging the Shia is the Zarqawistas--to make sure the Shia & Americans don't offer the Saddamite insurgents enough to make them turn on their erstwhile allies, the Zs.

USATODAY gave half a page (!) on Wed22Feb to 2 nincompoops pontificating on the need to launch an unprovoked PearlHarbor attack on Iran.
Interestingly,neither goof mentions the likelihood of really nasty Iranian retaliation--e.g., by blowing world oil prices suddenly through the roof and plunging the whole First World into another Great Depression.
(This type of hawk also dismissed possibility of insurgency following our Iraq invasion.)
Remarks of these goofs (paraphrased for brevity)in bold below: Lyons' comments not in bold.
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If there's any benefit about our being( in Iraq) in the region militarily, it's because we're now on Iran's border.
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Yeah--our fairly helpless GIs in Iraq are on Iran's border, hostage to their 800,000-man army which would infiltrate Iraq and slaughter our 140,000 GIs, possibly dosing them with poison gas (against which gas-masks are useless.)
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US intelligence says Iran is 4 years from nukes--but we know from Iraq fiasco that we can't trust US intelligence!
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This is rich ! because our intelligence (as distorted by Bushies) lied to us, saying Saddam WAS a world threat RightNow--we should ignore our present intelligence saying that Iran is NOT a world threat right now!

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We wouldn't invade; too many US casualties. But we have big bombs around there.
We don't want to go it alone. We have Israel as ally, but it would be bad to have them strike first. We should demand that our European 'allies' join us in bombing Iran.
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Our 'allies' will simply say NO again. Then we'd 'go it alone', except for our masters in Israel.We could destroy Iranian cities alone; we couldn't counter Iranian retaliation alone.
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We'll inflame Muslims further; so what?
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Here's what: Suppose only one in ten thousand MORE world Muslims are NEWLY enraged by our Iran PearlHarbor, enraged enough to volunteer as terrorist killers or as people who will hide and fund these killers.That makes 100,000 NEW people out to attack U.S.--and amply able to attack our VULNERABLE homeland.
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Center of war on terror is now Iran, getting nukes. We should wrap up our business in Iraq, and move on to Iran.
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Great..perhaps we could get Americans to forget 'shame' of bugging out of Iraq, by distraction of Iran attack. Iranian retaliation would provide plenty of distraction there ! But we'd better bug out and pull out our hostage troops from Iraq BEFORE we attack Iran. That would warn Iran of our nasty intentions, and give them time to put in place nasty preparations for retaliation.
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We can hope that mullahs' regime will be overthrown from within. But when it comes to nukes, hope just doesn't cut it.
We should allow 9 months for tries at diplomacy, then attack.If history has taught us anything, it's that if we let madmen go unchecked, tragic consequences will follow. The stakes are just too high.
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History teaches that the worst danger now is from American fool-hawks like these guys.
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Along with article, poll-graphs in the print edition show that only 9% of Americans want military action now, BUT 40% want to attack if 'diplomatic/economic pressures' fail. So far, 49% oppose attack even then--but hawks have months to hypnotize 10% more.
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Not a mention of ANOTHER,NON-NUKE reason US hawks might want to attack Iran: Iran's plans to open NEXT MONTH an international oil-market to free world buyers/sellers from enslavement to the dollar !

JUAN COLE, a US expert on Iraq, sums up the move of our ambassador to bar an Interior Minister (controlling police) allied with Shia militia.(The guy threatened to cut off our training program for allegedly 'all/Iraq' militia if Shia don't yield on this point.)

This Yank can't fight 'Pope' Sistani, who calls for quick govt.forming, based on constitution. This means Shia prime minister, and Shia Interior minister. Also, the Kurds will get to take over oil-soaked Kirkuk, no matter how the Sunni rage.

However, there might be a qualified member of the big Shia alliance who is not allied openly with the militias. He might be compromise candidate for Interior Minister. InfoClearinghouse

EGYPT DEFIES BUSHIES: For years, Egypt has been getting billions of dollars from America. Now Rice demanded that Egypt cut off money going to the Palestinian govt., now taken over by strongly-elected Hamas (which won't recognize Israel as a legitimate govt.) Egypt politely said no. [ Boston.com ]
That shows how little chance the Bushies have to get the rest of the Arab countries to cut off aid to the Hamas regime. Indeed, they may increase their aid to make up for US cutting off its aid.
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IRAN now says it will help finance the HAMAS regime in Palestine, (just to cock its nose again at Bushies) HINDU.COM
The MOSLEM BROTHERHOOD (proscribed but popular movement in Egypt) has called for world Muslims to help fund HAMAS for a while.
Interesting aspect: Hamas is SHIA (like Iran) but the Brotherhood is SUNNI. FinTimes

In the past, Sunni neighbors have not shown much sympathy for Iraq Shia (they didn't even offer condolences when one thousand Shia died on that bridge!). But now, after crazy Sunni bombing of top Shia shrine in Iraq, the whole Arab league will not dare to stint in backing Shia Hamas. (SaudiArabia, for instance, has 2 million sullen Shia in its main OIL AREA!)
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Diplomatically, Bush's America is a muscle-bound weakling.

JUST LIKE OLD TIMES: We're shocked at the incompetence today of CIA & other 'intelligence' agencies--they didn't predict the strong Hamas victory in Palestine, for instance. We may dream that once US govt.was more knowledgeable about the world.

However, in a recent scandal, Bushies are now re-declaring as secret thousands of documents that have been open (including many that have been copied widely!) One document was a CIA estimate in Oct.1950 predicting that the Chinese would NOT enter Korean war in 1950. Two weeks later, 300,000 Chinese troops invaded Korea ! [ NYTIMES ]

(At the time it was said that the nationalist Chinese on Taiwan had warned MacArthur about this danger, before he brazenly rushed right up to the Chinese border. Some thought he was stupid; others said he was treasonably trying to start a real war between US & China. Maybe CIA should have been spying on MacArthur! )

'W's VOTE-BASE WEAKENING: [ recent ZogbyPoll ]
OVERALL:in general, 40% give him a high rating, 60% fair or poor.
Only 42% say country is moving in right direction.
Iraq & terror are top issues:"He's doing well on Iraq":only 37% (63% said 'NO!")
--'well on terrror' : 44%.

HIS BASE:

Only 73% ofGOP approve generally(his lowest mark with them).
Only 68% of GOP approve of his war-handling.
Conservatives? 61% approve of Bush.
Rurals? now only 50%/
Born-Agains? only 59%
Lower now with men, with marrieds, with investors.
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Bad news: if his base is turning against him, yet his overall approval is same, does this mean that independents and Dems dislike him less now?
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What counts this year is NOT so much how people feel about Bush, but how they feel about keeping GOP in charge of Congress.(These 2 issues are distinct, though related.)
One problem: many Americans don't KNOW who's running Congress! They don't know whom to blame.

DIPLOMATIC (BLACK) COMEDY: [ TheAustralian ]
US ambassador to Iraq (who acts like king) warned Shia majority that we won't 'support' new government if Interior minister is 'sectarian' (i.e., represents Shia parties). Prime minister promptly denounced this interference with an elected, sovereign government. (What with WHOLESALE butchery of Shia, they're not so upset at RETAIL killings of Sunnis!)
2 bits of comedy:
--before the war, neocons said that expenses of new govt. would be borne by the oil revenue. They didn't foresee the insurgency at all, nor their power to disrupt oil exports. Three years later, Iraq govt. is still apparently dependent on US handouts.

--but this is the best bit: "Americans expect their tax money to be spent properly!" GOP runs all 3 federal branches.We subjects of this profligate monarchy do indeed WISH for proper spending; we may even piously PRAY for it--but we certainly don't EXPECT it !
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The ambassador expressed publicly Bushies' chagrin at close ties between supermajority Shia dominating the new government and the bogeyman Shia regime in next-door Iran.

It would be hilarious if wealthy Iran offered to make up the pittance subsidy
US is now doling out to Iraq govt.

Bushies may be threatening to quit training the fictitiously 'all/Iraq' militia, composed actually of Shia & Kurd troops whose first loyalty is to their respective ethnic/sectarian militias.
If their pay was cut off, they'd likely resort to gangsterism; they may later participate in the coming civil war.

If US did cut the training, that might well signal a quick bugout of US troops: after all, Bushies have been saying "We'll stand down as they stand up!"

Looks like they're standing up in the wrong position.

DEMS: "DON'T CUT & RUN; REDEPLOY ! "
The idea (which Dem pols are coming to agree on) is one I've been advancing for months: pull our troops out of 'the front line' (which is any road in Iraq !); redeploy them to countries near Iraq, for instance Kuwait..so they could be rushed back 'IF NECESSARY...' [ BostonGlobe ]

One problem, as I understand it: while the Kuwaiti oil-sultans like us (for saving their oil-billions earlier) the average Kuwaiti does NOT like Americans. I think I remember that when our troops were stationed there before the invasion, that part of the country had to be completely cleared of natives to prevent trouble. One PEW poll in june '03, 35% of Kuwaitis were VERY worried about a military threat from U.S.; 18% more were somewhat worried. (Other polls have showed friendlier attitudes.)

On the other hand, The Kurds seem to like us, and want our protection against possible Turkish invasion. (Turks have repressed 1 in 5 of their population who are Kurds; they DON'T want a successful Kurdish nation next door. In fact they have openly threatened an invasion if Iraqi Kurds secede openly. ) Perhaps we could keep a token force of GIs in safe Kurdish hinterland.

Another problem: what counts as 'necessary'--so GIs would have to rush back in ? An open invasion by a neighbor country, yes--but tit-for-tat killings between Sunnis and Shia (already happening!)?These would lead to 'ethnic cleansing'--with Sunni minorities driven out of Shialand, and Shia driven out of the middle area dominated by Sunni Arabs.

There's not much GIs could do to help,except maybe to escort fleeing minorities to their homeland. And then the GIs would be attacked--whereas the main point of the Dems' proposal seems to be to lower our casualty-rate.

The interesting thing about this 'necessary' question: what good do our troops do in Iraq NOW? We bomb & strafe 'suspected terrorists' (5 airstrikes a day!) We attack anyone picked out by our 'trusted informants'.
Thus we recruit for insurgents the enraged relatives of our victims. Practically all Iraqis want us out, and soon.

OVER 80 IRAQI CASUALTIES TODAY (20FEB).
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US AMBASSADOR THREATENS TO CUT SUPPORT FOR IRAQ IF (SHIA) 'SECTARIES' CONTROL INTERIOR DEPT. [ NYTIMES ]
What support? Bushies have already signalled they're stopping support for infrastructure reconstruction. That leaves only their pay for elected pols (important !) and their support and training for the allegedly 'all/Iraq' militias. If they cut off pay for the militia, these trained killers would turn to crime. If pay for pols is cut, then they'll get money by graft & extortion.

Since the enlistees are mainly Shia & Kurds, loyal first to their respective sectarian militias, there's no way US can make 'our' militia truly 'all/Iraq'.

SOME 'DICK CHENEY HUNTING POEMS":
Dick lowered the gun,The barrel still warm."Now that's what I call,Tort reform." (339)
-------
Quail Hunt FiletsDipped in an Unseasoned Batter / But When friends come a callingI go heavy on the Pepper (305)
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When a heart meets birdshot,It loses the tussle./ So do what Dick did,And remove that muscle. (344)
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Whose field this is, of course we know /She's sitting in the Hummer though./ She did not see me drop my beer /Or shoot him when I stubbed my toe. (390)
--------------
I picked his pocket, over beers, at lunch / A few beats my bum ticker skipped /Declared Old Harry's license:"Organ Donor" (398)

And here's the best one:
There once was a Veep from Wyoming
Who in search of some quail went a' roaming
He said, "Take that you fuck !
NOW who's the lame duck?"
And he shot his friend smack in the gloaming.

NIGERIAN REBELS CLAIM MORE ATTACKS: Kidnappings of foreign oil-workers, pipeline fires, explosions at oil depots. ALL/AFRICA

These rebels are not, apparently, motivated by Muslim sympathies, but by local complaints vs. central govt. of Nigeria. But they are nonetheless carrying out binLaden's call for attacks on all oil-export facilities throughout the world, to strike the oil-addicted First-World where it hurts.

Reaction: world oil prices jumped by $1.60 to over $61.50 a barrel; Nigeria is 8th largest exporter, and its location and the type of its oil make it a crucial supplier for US & Europe. FinTimes
-----------------------------------
The loss of Nigerian oil-exports makes even more absurd the rumored Bushie plans for attacking IRAN !

DUMB LUNGES:
That ancient hawk V.D. Hanson (fMtnNews,20Feb) reminds us yet again of the time when we should have intervened to stop Hitler, but didn't. He does not mention all the times we intervened foolishly into foreign conflicts.

We leaped into loony WW I, dumped the Kaiser and set up Stalin and Hitler.

We intervened in Korea, and dumbly sucked Red China into war against us; after thousands of GI casualties, this war is still not over; we've had to keep GIs in Korea for over fifty years--now they're hostages to North Korea's artillery and missiles.

We lunged into Somalia and had to bugout. We lunged into Lebanon and lost dozens of GIs before we bugged out. We lunged, of course, into Vietnam with truly tragic consequences. The shameful thing about these tragedies is NOT our bugging out, but the foolish way we barged into situations we didn't understand.

We lunged into Afghanistan--resulting in a resurgent Taliban and sky-high opium production. (A given GI in Afghanistan still has about the same chance of death or injury as one in Iraq ! ) And most recently we lunged into Iraq, with our leaders not foreseeing the undefeatable insurgency which still kills our GIs.

Looking over the 20th century: U.S. is far more likely to barge into conflicts foolishly than to appease dictators wrongly.

SEVERAL DOZEN IRAQI CASUALTIES today :(NYTIMES19Feb). Strong differences over forming govt. Kurds (backed by Americans) want an executive overboard dominating Shia Prime Minister. Shia say no, and no to Allawi, whom Kurds/Americans want slipped in on top.

Kurds intend to control (actually own) oil-rich Kirkuk area, but Shia (especially Sadr) say that oil belongs to 'all Iraqis'.

Americans can cut off the money; and Kurds MIGHT be able to cobble together 180 votes (presumably with some renegade Shia) to control vote for President and P.M.
----
SADR DENOUNCES PRESENT CONSTITUTION ('None of it is any good at all !') because it legitimates 'federalism' (actually deFactoSecession) by Kurds & Shiites. Boston.com

As I understand it, any amendment to the constitution must be passed by 2 in 3 delegates (passed by about 180 delegates, when the big Shiite parties have 90 members, enough to veto such amendments--and on this 'federalism' issue they'd have help of Kurdish delegates to work this veto !)
So, no chance to eliminate 'federalism' by amendments.

All the Sunni/American new alliance [ ! ]could do is just to scrap the constitution, which Americans last Dec. insisted be passed--and in a hurry, too! That would probably hurry the deFacto secession of Kurdland & Shialand.

Bushie 'stabilization' once again leads straight to chaos.

"DENMARK, SMEMARK! GO AFTER U.S. !" Our embassy in Indonesia was attacked, over the 'cartoon' issue. (Huge protests in many other countries also, with some deaths and woundings.) USATODAY

Indonesia should be worrying our govt. in a special way. There are hundreds of jungle-islands, perfect for hidden terrorist training-camps--with a million irate Muslims around to hide and fund terrorists.

We should spy on them? One would hate to guess how few Americans understand any of the many Indonesian languages !

ARAB TAKEOVER OF OUR PORTS ?? !! [ GUARDIAN ]

UnitedArabEmirates was involved with the 9/11 hijackers,also with Pakistan scientist's sale of nuke info to suspect countries.

But now the Bushies plan to allow them to take over several of our vulnerable ports! Some GOP legislators say there aren't enough safeguards; Bushies respond that the safeguards are classified!

Terrorism is terrible--but business is business.
-------------
Even unprincipled Bill Frisk opposes this move. But Bush says he will VETO any Congressional move to stop it. Here's a great chance for Congressional GOP to split off visibly from loser Bush: they could help Dems pass a bill to block this sale; then when he vetoes the Bill, help Dems OVERTHROW THE VETO !

RICE TOURS MIDEAST IN HOPELESS BID TO ISOLATE HAMAS & IRAN: Arabs point out that US gives billions to Israel, so they'll refuse to cut off aid to Hamas-ruled Palestine.

Even if SaudiArabia doesn't like nuke program of Iran, there's little pressure they can bring to bear on Iran. REUTERS

What pressure can Bushies bring on mideast oil-sultans? They're in the catbird seat.

ANOTHER PSEUDO-CONSERVATIVE ! (ltr to Ft.C.COLORADOAN)
Jonah Greenberg [19Feb, no link available] portrays himself as a 'true conservative', disapproving even of many GOP moves. He wants to move the country toward fiscal restraint, limited government, and cultural decency.

But then he admits that in 2004 he might have backed a 'reliably pro-war Democrat' ! These 2 wars, in Iraq and Afghanistan, cost over $100,000 millions a year. Worse, they give the Pentagon an excuse to demand $400,000 millions EXTRA each year, besides the money for the actual wars. So much for fiscal restraint!

This Pentagon money is greater than our federal deficit. It's as if all other federal agencies are living within their means, with only the Pentagon allowed to be profligate.

Also, the Pentagon maintains over one hundred overseas bases; expenditures there count as imports (not to mention the staggering amount of imported oil this agency burns!) These imports, unbalanced by our puny exports, contribute greatly to our mounting trade deficit.
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'Limited government': the 'war on terror' gives Bush an excuse to spy on internet searches, allegedly to keep porn from children--a project having nothing to do with terrorism, a project usurping Congressional functions: Congress, not the executive branch, is supposed to investigate the need for future laws.
--------------
"Cultural decency": we have turned some of our troops into monsters who insist on photographing their own torturing of prisoners. Presumably Greenberg cares only about sexual decency; but some of these abuses were quite sexual. Iraqis say that our troops make no effort to spare innocent civilians; this is hardly an example of decency.
--------------------
In general, no true conservative could be 'pro-war' if our nation has not been invaded. A conservative by definition wants to conserve our good traditions; a conservative worries about the unexpected consequences of blind lunges. And the 'fog of war' is famous for involving unexpected consequences. Five empires rushed enthusiastically into WW I; all five disappeared within 35 years--as a consequence of that war.

This latest blind lunge in Iraq has resulted in a lethal insurgency (which Bushies admit they didn't foresee!) and an oil-rich Shia ministate that will be allied with our main bogeyman Iran ! Also, we're giving mil.training to 'all/Iraq' army which is actually composed mainly of Shia/Kurd personnel whose first loyalty is to their upcoming ministates, NOT to 'unified Iraq' !
--------------
Greenberg poses as an independent conservative intellectual. He may be independent (though he has previous connections with right-wing pols)--but he is not conservative--nor is he a consistent intellectual.

He's just another smarmy right-wing flack.

FORCED IRAN COMPROMISE? Diplomats said that Russia & China would veto any UN-Security-Council sanctions vs. Iran.
Also, Iran won't accept notion that the uranium needed for its electric plants would be enriched in Russia, not in Iran.

They'd need a huge number of detectable centrifuges to enrich enough uranium even for 1 bomb !

Another possible compromise: allow them to enrich a LITTLE uranium, enough for electric plant but not enough for a bomb. WashPost
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All this ignores two factors:
--Issue may NOT be nukes at all; issue may be Iran's threat to start NEXT MONTH a new oil-trading-post (a 'bourse') where oil could be 'denominated' in euros, not dollars, depriving US of much income.

--real threat may NOT be of UNSC sanctions, but of US/ Israel bombs.
--------------
Iranian speaker said one thousand Iranians were ready to volunteer as suicide bombers vs. US targets in next-door Iraq, if US attacked Iran.
Courier-Mail

SHEAHAN RULES ! My wife's first-cousin, Mike Sheahan, has been re-elected twice as sheriff of CookCounty (a jail holding 10k prisoners!) A young relative got knifed during exciting first campaign. Very Chicago.

Recently, some prisoners escaped. What a disgrace! But it turns out they had the help of a guard who was TRYING TO DISGRACE Sheahan, to help a rival. Very Chicago.

Now it turns out that Mike captured one escaped prisoner himself! [UnitedPress,18Feb] Poof to disgrace!

Mike recently won an online opinion poll (beating out Bill Murray and Sen.Obama) as the 'ultimate Chicagoan'. There was some cheating, but it was said, "That's very Chicago!"

I rather regret that I gave him a 'D' in logic,at St.Joe's, fifty years ago. And Mary, as the oldest of 16 cousins in an up/down duplex, expelled little Mikey from family club because he didn't bring his nickel.

These incidents haven't hurt his career, but they may lower the chance for people in my family to get a patronage job.
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All right--it turns out he nabbed a WOMAN inmate escaping from a hospital. Still Notable. [ChiSun-times,18Feb]

WILL VENEZUELA CUT OFF US OIL? We get 1.5 million barrels-per-day from V, which is world's fifth-largest exporter. Chavez says (plausibly) that we are trying to 'destabilize' V (a favorite US trick)..and if this keeps on...
AL JAZEERA

Suppose we did attack V; and suppose they managed to stop their oil-exports--for instance by setting off 'dirty bombs' in their fields. Not only would that hurt US directly, but it would raise world oil-prices almost as much as if IRAN cut off its exports (4th largest exporter). And it's said that a cutoff of Iran's oil would spike world price up to $130 per barrel.

Nigerian exports are down 20%--Shell is fleeing the country. [Assoc.Press,19Feb] It looks as if binLaden's desire will be fulfilled: attacks on all oil-exporters, to strike the First-World where it hurts, economically.

BLIND GIANT LUNGING: (ltr to USATODAY)
Even our elite youths don't display much interest in learning foreign languages or learning about foreign cultures. (Americans were astonished that Muslims worldwide would get that excited over cartoons showing Muhammed or allegations about our troops' defiling copies of the Koran.)

Besides, our ruling politicians feel free to pressure our intelligence agencies to say what they want--so the intelligence agencies quickly learn not to tell them the truth. [see current issue of FOREIGN AFFAIRS]

Result? Our rulers don't really understand the rest of the world. (They were astonished at the big Hamas victory in Palestine--just as they were at the irrepressible Iraq insurgency.)We are like a blind giant growling and lunging around near a cliff.

It would take years to change this situation (as the outgoing head of CIA told the Senate). In the meantime, harsh as this sounds, we should quit butting into world affairs. ["But since 9/11, we HAVE TO butt in.."/Even so, that doesn't mean our ignorant lunges won't be counter-productive.]

We should concentrate instead on blocking the more probable forms of terrorist attacks on our Homeland (e.g., germ-war),and repairing/healing after the attacks that get through.

Instead the Bush team allots peanuts for Homeland Security, compared to the hundreds of billions going to the Pentagon.Their snazzy bombers are useless against the terrorist INDIVIDUALS who threaten us.

Bush denounces 'retreat into isolationism'. Instead he goes for reckless interventionist lunges based on ignorant isolationist thinking.

HUGE UNGOVERNED AREAS IN N.AFRICA (crossing borders) ripe for terrorist training camps. [So much for Bushies' bragging about their cutting off alQaeda camps in Afghanistan!]

And of course Pentagon bombers are useless in such situations.

Congress passed laws saying that we couldn't send in troops into 'countries' that won't exempt our troops from 'war-crimes' trials.These 'countries' don't have such exemptions because they're without any govt. to pass such exemptions !

China is coming in big into such areas, because China wants the rich natural resources available there. UnitedPress

RICE CAUGHT IN FLAT LIE: She told Senate that 'more and more Iraqis are getting access to clean water and sewage services.' But then, after tough questions, she admitted that while 'capacity' had increased, FEWER Iraqis were actually getting clean water & sewage service!

Also, oil production is down to 1.7 million barrels a day, from over 2.5 million under Saddam. A report by Inspector General said that by almost every economic index, Iraqis under American tutelage are now worse off than under Saddam.

Rummy told a House committee that the insurgents were being 'marginalized' (offering no evidence). When reminded of the Pentagon report that we couldn't maintain the required # of troops until insurgents were defeated, Rummy blithely said that was irrelevant, because insurgents would be defeated by Iraqis !

There is no timetable for bugout, but consensus is that we'll have only 100,000 GIs there by year-end '06. Big deal. This could leave remaining troops at GREATER RISK.

An anonymous US official said we're getting involved in a civil war; we're making the 'all/Iraq' army more lethal, but we're NOT instilling a sense of natl. identity--(so we're actually making sectarian militias more lethal). FinTimes

Insurgents will be more energized at new Sunni assassinations by Shiia.

Ironic part: US now regrets that it backed Shia so strongly, since they're allied with IRAN, our top bogeyman. (Iran just called for pullout of Brit troops from Basra region, since they've so infuriated the locals that the Basra officials have cancelled all cooperation with the Brits.)
-------------
Rep. MURTHA again calls for US bugout: "We're not fighting terrorism there--we're INCITING terrorism !" Rummy snaps back against M's 'hanging crepe and saying everything's horrible in Iraq'. But the only good news he offered was reminding us of the 3 'successful' elections there (that reminded Sunni Insurgents that as a 1/5th minority, Sunnis had nothing to gain from electoral politics; elections which put into power the Shia allies of Iran!) UnitedPress

WORLD OIL PRICE UP; NIGERIAN OIL PRODUCTION DOWN 10% from sabotage. The guerilla rebels in Nigeria may not be Islamists--but their actions are in accord with binLaden's call for the oil industry to be attacked worldwide. FinTimes

RUSS TOP MIL.CHIEF WARNS US VS. ATTACKING IRAN...lest this attack stir up the whole Muslim world. ABC
This sounds as if the Russ take this stupid possibility seriously.
-----------------------------------
ATTACK IRAN?
TEN THOUSAND WOULD DIE IF US ATTACKED IRAN, says an Oxford thinktank (which, before invasion of Iraq, predicted a prolonged insurgency--a contingency Bushies admit they didn't foresee.)

A bomb on Iran's main nuke plant would spread radiation all over the area.

Their 800,000-man, combat-seasoned army could spring a deadly 2d front on 140,000 Iraq GIs.
("No, our bombers could stop an invasion." Yes, but they wouldn't invade--they'd infiltrate non-uniformed troops into Iraq--with the help of Shia Iraqis like the followers of Sadr. Some say there are already thousands of Iranian trooops in Iraq!)

And even if their little navy was destroyed, suicide speedboats could block Strait of Hormuz (controlling 1/5th of world oil-supply), raising world oil-prices sky-high.

Their missiles could hit at GIs in many nearby bases--also Israel !
LONDON TELEGRAPH
Some say US hopes to grab narrow strip of Iran with most of its oil.
It wouldn't work for Iran to burn the oilfields;Saddam tried that.
But they could plant 'dirty bombs' there that need no chain reaction to make large area radioactively uninhabitable for months or years, making this oil unobtainable.
That would be long enough to wreck'first-world' economies.
--------
So, should we believe all the talk of Pentagon contingency plans is just bluff? No, we should remember that destruction of German cities did NOT stop Hitler's agression. Nobody knows just how crazy these Bushies are .

SELF-CENSORED US MEDIA:
So far, Reuters, Telegraph, and Guardian have run this OxfordResearch story. NOT NYTIMES, though they headlined Iran's restarting nuclear work--buried in the story, they admitted that this would take YEARS. Also not USATODAY: they ran an interview with Iran's president without a word said about the possible US attack on Iran.

Googling for Iran + attack +Oxford --this yields dozens of notices ,but no new mainstream media stories on this important report.

Iranians are also crazy. A Dr.Strangelove-situation ahead?
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PROPAGANDA TRIUMPH: A vast majority of Americans think Iran is a threat to U.S. ! GallupPoll For some time now (YEARS, admits NYT !) they will NOT have nukes ! And then they'll have only a few.
Iran may well threaten U.S.(esp. our poor GIs next-door in Iraq!)--but only if we attack first.

Good news: 70% of Americans are somewhat/or/very concerned that Bushies will resort too soon to military attack on Iran. [USATODAY,14fEB]

Why would the bushies take the disastrous risks involved in bombing Iran?
(see warning above).
NOT from worries about Iran's possible nukes (not possible within ten years!)

But perhaps because of worry about Iran's planned new 'oil trading post' (called a 'bourse')--scheduled to start up next month !

Saddam moved his oil from 'dollar-denominated' to 'euro-denominated'. We invaded--and immediately our puppet govt. reversed this move.

It's very hard to understand why US would lose economically from this kind of move, but apparently we would.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CLA410A.html

It's interesting--but not surprising--that NO tame US media has even mentioned this issue.
----------------
Apparently many countries would gain from such a new bourse.
Even if Bushies stop Iran (as they stopped Iraq)--some other oil-seller like
Russia might start such a bourse, denominating their oil in euros not dollars.

We couldn't attack Russia. Their 2d-strike retaliation (in submarines) would wipe out all US cities. Also, the price-spike from the loss of Iranian oil would make Russia insanely wealthy, immune to any US pressures.
(Bushies have started to denounce Putin.) Also enriched would be gadfly Venezuela. [Problem: maybe this huge possible gain to Russ gives them a reason to want the attack, no matter what they say.]

Maybe this issue is so important that Bushies would pay this awful price (attacking Iran) just to DELAY such a bourse!
------------
Syria (with oil outflow of 400,000 barrels a day !) has switched all its accounts from $ to Euros. (A new point: all $ accounts must go thru US banks. Bushies have been freezing Syrian accounts in America.)
[ alJazeera,14Feb. ]
Syrians know that Bushies would bomb them anyway, as soon as they dare.

Israelis have worried that IF present regime is toppled, Syria may be taken over by jihadists--and Syria is right next door to Israel!)
===============
ON THE OTHER HAND: [GOOD NEWS ? ] It's said that an actual cutoff of Iranian oil would raise world prices to $130 a barrel (from $61 a barrel now). It's also said that the RISK of such a cutoff now adds about $6 a barrel to world prices. That indicates a pretty small risk ! In fact, oil dropped below $59 a barrel on 15Feb.

Now IF we can assume that wealthy oil speculators know the 'inside story', then we can assume that the 'inside story' is that Bushies are just bluffing, trying to intimidate Iran (perhaps so they won't open that 'bourse').
That won't happen. When it's obvious that the Iranians can't be bullied, then will come the crunch. If the speculators are right, Bushies will back down as they did with North Korea. If the speculators are wrong...

Americans are inveterate blabbers. If Pentagon starts making last-minute preparations for attack, this will be leaked, and the price of oil will spike.
That will give Iranians notice to make the last-minute preparations for their diabolical plans for retaliation.

That might be the chance for alQaeda types to launch an attack (most likely germ-war) on our vulnerable Homeland.

If only this were just a movie!

"WEST BUNGLED 'WAR' ON TERROR" says expert, commenting on surprise HAMAS vote-victory in Palestine. Too much emphasis on military response (implicit in name 'WAR'), not enough response to Islamist goals.

We should concentrate more on Homeland Defense. "Terrorism won't work if we're not terrorized." UnitedPress

Lyons: Americans are not so much terrorized as ENRAGED at impudence of 3d-world insurgencies--especially after 9/11 ! When next attack comes (and one binLaden expert predicts a nuke attack soon!), Americans will likely go completely fascist.

Sensible and talented youth here should prepare for possible emigration:
a) learning a foreign language (one billion people worldwide speak Spanish);
b) learning a hands-on trade (e.g. auto repair or technician at old-folks-home) that another country will want in an immigrant--a trade that can't be automated or outsourced.

'ONE YR TO AVOID TOTAL FAILURE' in Iraq, says a report from Brookings thinktank. We face two problems: Insurgency, plus COLLAPSE of our puppet govt. UnitedPress

Remedy:pull our troops back to defend population centers (implied: forget about trusting our 'all/Iraq' militia!/ also implicit: stop attacks on insurgents--especially the five airstrikes each day, which enrage surviving relatives and recruit them as insurgents!)

THAILAND ISLAMIST REBELS LEARN FROM IRAQ INSURGENTS: [ UnitedPress ] They're now using tactics and weapons pioneered by the insurgents.

Not only does our Iraq fiasco enrage world Muslims and recruit terrorists--e.g., the new prison-abuse photos, plus the TV pictures of Brit soldiers pounding on teen-agers--but terrorists world-wide are learning from our insurgent foes how to counter a first-world force. After all, binLaden got his military training in helping drive Soviets out of Afghanistan!

SADR AS KINGMAKER: The radical young Shiite leader led two open military attacks on Americans. His group has 32 (of 275) seats in new Parliament. He made Shiites reinstall ineffective Jaafari as PrimeMinister.

On many issues, he's with Sunnis. Wants timetable for US bugout; wants delay in 'autonomous regions' (deFacto secession of Shialand and Kurdland)--perhaps wants restraint of alliance with Iran (tho he says he'll back Iran if US attacks).

Most important: he strongly opposes move by Kurds to take over oil-soaked Kirkuk area. NYTIMES

Angry Kurds might refuse coalition with Shia in Parliament; that would produce unpredictable situation. (You can bet they'll speed up their defactoSecession, and probably their covert takeover of Kirkuk region.
Who will attack against their formidable Peshmurga militia? US (& Israel) are on their side.)

RATS JUMP BUSHIE SHIP: A GOP committee scathingly condemned Bushie performance during Hurricane Katrina. INDEPENDENT

This is the first big sign that Congressional GOP wants to separate their fate (in coming Nov. election !) from the Bushie losers.

In fact, Dems may be helping them by denouncing Bushies, distracting people from the disgraceful corruption of Congr.GOP.

VP MADE RIDICULOUS by TV comics.(see summary of jokes below).
Ridicule of pols is sometimes more fatal than irate criticism. Remember when the Carter team leaked fact that Jimmy had been attacked in a rowboat by a rabbit? He won the fight; but the ridicule may well have weakened his status before the election. (Bush has also been the subject of much ridicule; but neither he nor Cheney will be running for office again.)

IRAQIS ENRAGED BY NEW PRISON-ABUSE PHOTOS: just published in Australia.

These photos were available long ago (US legislators expressed disgust) but Pentagon tried to keep them secret. If they had been released then, the furor would have died down.

But now, coming on top of the 'cartoon' scandal and the TVphotos of Brit soldiers pounding on Iraqi teen-age boys, they are deadly.

"Saddam's rule was better!" said one Iraqi. "Both he and Americans commit crimes against humanity; but under Saddam we at least had security."

Since the invasion, since Bushies fired police-force without replacing it, insurgents AND GANGSTERS and now Shiite militias operating in police uniforms--all these forces have wreaked anarchic horror on the people.
========
SEVENTY THOUSAND PAKISTANIS MARCH PROTESTING CARTOONS: they also burned US businesses. GUARDIAN
Many Americans say they don't care that the rest of the world despises Bushies & their policies. But contempt for America could cut our exports, which are already far too skimpy to support our insatiable habit of consuming imports.

$ EIGHTY-FIVE MILLION FOR ANTI-MULLAH PROPAGANDA IN IRAN !Condi Rice asked for $75 million more to add to the $10 million already budgetted for this purpose. NYTIMES

The money will also fund opposition-figures vs. the mullahs. FinTimes

Can we believe that the Bushies are SO DUMB that they think the Iranians will believe US propaganda after they hear about the $85 million? Now they won't believe any favorable news about US, or exposes of the Mullas,EVEN IF THEY'RE TRUE ! Iranians have not forgotten covert CIA activity to install horrors of Shah's regime in Iran.

OR is this just a cover for a planned 'Pearl Harbor' bombing attack Bushies intend to launch at Iran? One expects that the Iranian govt. will not let down its guard because of this silly maneuver.

MORE DETAILS ON PENTAGON'S 'LONG WAR' STRATEGY:
guardian
2 details not likely to be implemented:
--partnership with other nations. Bushies have enraged every Muslim population; their tame governments can be bought, but they're increasingly nervous about being punished for cooperation with US by Islamist terrorists. Zany Bushies have also lost for us the trust of other 'First-World' countries.

--more spies on the ground; this urgent need requires more linguists proficient (esp. in Chinese (?!), Arabic and Farsi.) What about URDU, the language of millions of people in Pakistan and Bangladesh? What about all the languages of Indonesia?

It will take many years to develop a cadre of Americans proficient in foreign languages and knowledgeable about foreign customs, in order to have competent spies 'on the ground'. (like Col.Lawrence, mentioned in the plan).

The Pentagon plan envisions use of foreign allies as spies--but can they be trusted? Remember the Iraqi exiles who misled us, helping the Bushies lie us into needless, pointless war. (On the other hand, we've had several American spies who have sold us out--in true American style--for money.)

Until we develop such a worldly cadre, we should quit butting blindly into world affairs--former CIA Head told Congress we wouldn't have competent intelligence for years. We should concentrate on defending our Homeland (NOT relying on Pentagon, whose only real talent is bombing!)
-----------
I'm reminded of the story of the CIA agent who was meticulously trained in local Russian language & customs, then parachuted into rural Russia.
At a tavern, a local farmer approached him to say, "I don't mind--but you are an American spy, right?"
The agent was dumbfounded. "How did you know?"
"Well, we have very few Negro people living around here!"

4 BIG INSURGENT GROUPS: [FinTimes,15Feb]
It seems there are 4 big, centralized, sophisticated groups involved in Iraq insurgency: only 1 is mainly nationalist, not fanatic Islamist. They feel confident that most Iraqis agree on opposing US occupation and our new puppet govt.

US will have to hand over Sunni/Arab region to that nationalist group, hoping it will then turn on its fanatic allies.

But secular Saddamite leaders will then control 'empire of sand' between oil-rich, hostile Kurdland and Shialand. This may make them decide to stay joined to Islamists and fight to the death.

(This will happen eventually; they're outnumbered 4 to 1.)

WICKED--AND DUMB !
On page 1 of USATODAY we read the advice that harsh treatment of Muslims increases terrorist activity. On p.1B we read about a protest vs. force-feeding geese to make foi gras.

Yet it's admitted that in Guantanamo prison, we manacle human hunger-strikers to a chair and force liquid nourishment up their nose. No Americans protest over that.

This harshness is as stupid as it is ruthless. If a hunger-striker dies, he disappears from the headlines; but if kept alive by force-feeding, he stays in the world news. Small wonder the UN has denounced 'torture' in this prison, and demanded that it be closed. We should accede to this demand in our own self-interest !

CUNNING RAND PERSON suggests slow, roundabout way to go after Iran:

We should organize a 'mideast security alliance', technically including Iran if they're willing.

--implicit: Give up on Europeans or UN pressuring Iran--when China and Russia won't join in.

--explicit: Her Sunni neighbors all want Iran contained.

--explicit: immediate, unilateral US military threats would be impractical. implicit: US won't attack before Nov. elections.

--explicit: if Iran won't cooperate, then final US/Israel attack will seem more legitimate: "We first tried all peaceful means." UnitedPress

Lyons: That may have worked to legitimate Iraq attack..but again ? C'mon !
Also, Sunni oil-sultans might LIKE Iranian new oil bourse (from $ to Euro), freeing their oil-income from chancy dollar. Also, if it frees oil-buyers from slavery to $, it might enable sultans to raise oil-price.

'ALL/IRAQ' ARMY TAKING OVER? US general says they're now taking over security job in 40% of Iraq. UnitedPress

--Are they ready to 'take over' after GIs are pulled out? Last word was that only ONE BATTALION was that ready.

--Well, at least, can they take over while we remain in country--so as to lower US casualties? Maybe--but so far, US casualties have NOT gone down! (See 'IRAQ CASUALTIES' below.)

--What about the claim that most Iraqi soldiers are really loyal--NOT to central govt--but to Shia or Kurdish militia? What about covert attacks on Sunnis? What about insurgents infiltrating this army, getting intelligence info about where and when to strike?

Brit govt. refused to publish a US general's estimate in '05 of Iraq army's readiness. INDEPENDENT

> Cheney Accident Triggers Jokes on Late-Night TV> By BROOKS BARNES> February 14, 2006 8:42 a.m.> Below, a sampling of jokes from the monologues from Monday episodes of various late-night programs.
> "Good news ladies and gentleman, we have finally located weapons of mass destruction . It's Dick Cheney."
>> "We can't get Bin Laden, but we nailed a 78-year-old attorney."
> "Honestly, I don't know what all of the fuss is about. What's more American than shooting your hunting buddy in the ass?"
>> "The guy who got gunned down is a Republican lawyer and a big Republican donor and fortunately the buck shot was deflected by wads of laundered cash. So he's fine. He took a little in the wallet."
> From "Cheney's Excuses," Monday night's Top 10 list: "I thought the guy was trying to go gay cowboy on me."
> "Yes, as you've just heard, a near-tragedy over the weekend > in south Texas. Vice President Dick Cheney accidentally shot a man during a quail hunt at a political supporter's ranch. Making 78-year-old Harry Whittington the first person shot by a sitting VP since Alexander Hamilton.>> "Hamilton, of course, shot in a duel with Aaron Burr over issues of honor, integrity and political maneuvering. Whittington? Mistaken for a bird.
>> The other player in the drama? Ranch owner and eyewitness Katharine Armstrong.>> Katharine Armstrong: "We were shooting a covey of quail. The vice president and two others got out of the car to walk up the covey."
>> Jon Stewart: "What kind of hunting story begins with getting out of your car? As I sighted the great beast before us, my shaking hands could barely engage the parking brake. Slowly, I turned off the A/C and silenced my sub-woofers."
>> Katharine Armstrong: "A bird flushed. The vice president took aim at the bird and shot and unfortunately, Mr. Whittington was in the line of fire and got peppered pretty well.">> Jon Stewart: "Peppered. There you have it. Harry Whittington, seasoned to within an inch of his life.
>> Jon Stewart: "I'm joined now by our own vice-presidential firearms mishap analyst, Rob Corddry. Rob, obviously a very unfortunate situation. How is the vice president handling it?
>> Rob Corddry: "Jon, tonight the vice president is standing by his decision to shoot Harry Wittington. According to the best intelligence available, there were quail hidden in the brush. Everyone believed at the time there were quail in the brush.> "And while the quail turned out to be a 78-year-old man, even knowing that today, Mr. Cheney insists he still would have shot Mr. Whittington in the face. He believes the world is a better place for his spreading buckshot throughout the entire region of Mr. Whittington's face."
>> Jon Stewart: "But why, Rob? If he had known Mr. Whittington was not a bird, why would he still have shot him?">> Rob Corddry: "Jon, in a post-9-11 world, the American people expect their leaders to be decisive. To not have shot his friend in the face would have sent a message to the quail that America is weak.">> Rob Corddry: "Look, the mere fact that we're even talking about how the vice president drives up with his rich friends in cars to shoot farm-raised wingless quail-tards is letting the quail know 'how' we're hunting them. I'm sure right now those birds are laughing at us in that little 'covey' of theirs.
>> Jon Stewart: "Okay, well, on a purely human level, is the vice president at least sorry?">> Rob Corddry: "Jon, what difference does it make? The bullets are already in this man's face. Let's move forward across party lines as a people to get him some sort of mask."
>> "It's part of the president's new Social Security plan. Once you hit 78, kablamo."
>> "Luckily, the guy he shot was wearing the body armor that never got shipped to the troops."
>> "You know what they say, if Dick Cheney comes out of his hole and shoots an old man in the face, 6 more weeks of winter."
> "Although it is beautiful here in California, the weather back East has been atrocious. There was so much snow in Washington, D.C. Dick Cheney accidentally shot a fat guy thinking it was a polar bear."
>> "When people found out he shot a lawyer his popularity is now at 92%"
>> "After he shot the guy, he screamed, 'Anyone else want to call domestic wire tapping illegal?' "
>> "Something I just found out today about the incident. Do you know that Dick Cheney tortured the guy for a half hour before he shot him?">> >"Cheney's defense is that he was aiming at a quail when he shot the guy. Which means that Cheney now has the worst aim of anyone in the White House since Bill Clinton."

REFINERY SHORTAGE responsible for high gas prices, says OPEC.
They plan to goose up their refinery capacity, making US even more dependent on them. FinTimes

It's said that shortage of US refineries is from environmental restrictions, etc.
But we remember the recent stratospheric profits of US oil companies. Perhaps this is an engineered shortage, caused by collusion among refinery companies.

If it is, then perhaps we can expect that building new refineries in mideast will trigger extra refineries here, environment be damned.

BUSHIES IN POST-INVASION IRAQ IGNORED PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE :
US & UN have had some success in rebuilding nations after, say, civil war. But Bushies ignored all previous experience and sent into Iraq a bunch of inexperienced amateurs, who bungled fatally.
This assessment is from the man Bush first sent in as envoy to Afgh. UnitedPress

[see 'SELF-CONFIDENT IGNORANCE', below.]

"Oh, that's ancient history ! What counts now is what to do now!"
Oh yeah? THE SAME TEAM of arrogant Bushie incompetents will be running our continuing war !
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SIXTY-FIVE IRAQI CASUALTIES ON MONDAY13fEB
NYTIMES
Americans are not doing well in protecting Iraqis from terrorists; but they themselves cause many casualties--especially with their 5 airstrikes a day. That may be why practically all Iraqis WANT US OUT !

US 'INTELLIGENCE' AGAIN SHOWS ITS IGNORANCE:They did NOT foresee huge Hamas triumph in Palestine. Ho-hum, dog bites man. FinTimes
We are like a blind giant growling and lunging near a cliff.Since we don't understand the outside world, we should quit butting in around the world--and stick to defending our Homeland from attacks by terrorist individuals.

But this won't happen--because the Bushies display self-confident ignorance; that is stupidity. Stupid people can't learn, because they see no need to study. Hence the maxim:"The wicked can repent; but stupid is forever."

FOUR GIs KILLED BY ROAD BOMB IN AFGHANISTAN:
REUTERS

Since Afgh.has only 1/7 the # of GIs in Iraq, this would be like twenty-eight killed in Iraq.

Americans forget about our OTHER war; but a given GI in Afgh. has about the same chance to be killed or wounded as a GI in Iraq !

INDECISIVE JAAFARI SQUEAKS BACK IN AS PRIME MINISTER. elected by top (Shiite) coalition, by only one vote! Kingmaker SADR backed him. [ CNN ]

Now comes the tough part, picking govt. ministers ! (What ones will Sunnis get? Who gets Interior post ? He'll control the 'all/Iraq security forces'-- actually composed of men loyal to Kurdish or Shia militias. These forces have been persecuting Sunnis.

Who'll get the oil ministry? (Under crook Chalabi, a top functionary there--who was supposed to guard the oil pipelines--fled the country with millions of dollars. )

RICE BLAMES NATIONS for 'cartoon' riots. ABC http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=1609224
What an odd way to talk. There may be people inciting these riots--but why talk of incitement by 'nations' ? !

It's very simple: rabble-rousing imams can't be BOMBED, but nations can be. And bombing is about the only talent the Pentagon has. So Bushies talk as if P's snazzy bombers and missiles are relevant.

When the only tool you have is a hammer, every project looks like a nail.

(Also, Bushies are threatening Iran & Syria with bombs, so they want to blame worldwide riots on THOSE nations.)

RUMMY CALLS STUPIDLY FOR 'LONG WAR': UnitedPress
http://upi.com/SecurityTerrorism/view.php?StoryID=20060210-044001-6767r
His description is modest: either they'll convert us to Taliban, or we'll change them to happy consumers. Weaker power (terrorists)usually comes out ahead in 'long wars': alternative is their quick defeat.

Rummy might have been even more modest, expressing the hope that they'll leave us alone (no terrorist attacks) and we'll leave them alone (no imperialism). Both restraints are unlikely.

GOP congressman (untypically) blows the whistle: this summary is "budget-driven, not very helpful to Congress." In other words, the point is to get trillions more for Pentagon waste-machine.

ELEPHANT IN LIVING-ROOM:[ltr to DenverPost]

Where can we economize? Neil Peirce (12Feb) agonizes over the money needed to train our youth in science and engineering. Number of US engineering students has dropped, swamped by hundreds of thousands of new Chinese & Indian engineers.

From what budget could this extra money come from? He mentions the $120 billion going for our 2 current wars. He mentions Homeland Security, which is (disastrously) getting less than $50 billion. He also mentions the NON-WAR money going to the Pentagon: $440 billion !

Much of these extra 440 billions goes for snazzy new bombers and missiles; these are pretty useless against the terrorist INDIVIDUALS who threaten our Homeland. But Peirce talks as if the main programs to cut are our medical programs from old folks. (The net cost of these programs is now pretty small, after you subtract the payments coming in from workers and retirees today.)

He just hints at the folly of shovelling so much money to the Pentagon.

Why can't cuts in Pentagon money be discussed openly (for programs that don't contribute to our current wars or our Homeland Security)? This is the ignored elephant in our living-room.
[link to Peirce unavailable]

ETHNIC CLEANSING: A once peaceful area of Baghdad, with Sunnis & Shia mixing and marrying, has now become an anarchic war-zone.

In the worst incident, 200 armed men(in uniforms of natl.security force--actually Shiites--, in police cars) showed up and kidnapped many Sunni men, never seen since.
Now Shiites are finding 'GET OUT!' letters in their doorways. WashingtonPost

CANADIAN OIL-SANDS: This HUGE resource is delightfully accessible to US. However, both China and India are competing vigorously for this petroleum.

Will Bush Intelligence discover that Canada is harboring terrorists, and threaten attack?

"WE MIGHT MISS SADDAM ! " says Israeli Security Chief."When you topple a dictator, you get chaos. Israel may come to regret its support for the invasion." UnitedPress

This fits Thos.Hobbes' theory: that NOTHING is worse than anarchy, including most tyrannies. This is especially true in patched-together nations like Iraq or Yugoslavia, whose population is divided among hostile ethnic or sectarian groups.

"Saddam's sons now and then raped a woman; but now every woman is threatened by rape."

When Bushies dumbly dismissed Iraq police-force, and couldn't replace it, they enabled not only the insurgents, but also an army of GANGSTERS, whose habit of kidnapping is driving out of country many middle-class Iraqis. (On his way out, Saddam thoughtfully released 100,000 criminals from prisons, to add to the fun.)
-----------------
see FinancialTimes for a touching sketch of life in the Baghdad slum called SADR CITY,where disciples of Moqtadr SADR try to keep order and hunt down kidnappers.

US GENERAL: "Much bungling in 1st yr of trying to train Iraqi militia !"
NYTIMES (Whole Iraqi force deserted in attack on Fallujah!)
(Later also in attack on Mosul.)
============================
IRAQ CASUALTIES: in 12 days (30Jan->10Feb), 105 GIs wounded, 47 seriously. 22 killed from 3 Feb->10 Feb.(Story emphasizes# of wounded 'down'(from previous week)--the only time wounded # are given publicity!)

So far, 2000 GIs have suffered brain injury, or loss of limbs, or were crippled for life.UnitedPress (Also,thousands suffering from PostTraumaStressSyndrome--i.e., shell-shock.) That's SO FAR..
--------------------
Some say we should forget about the crazy way the war started, and remember that "we can't just bugout now". But the SAME TEAM of crooked bunglers who lied us into the war will now be managing the war's continuation.
------------------
UPI story also told of increase in # of Iraq civilian casualties..but who here cares about them?
--------
UPI.COM is good source for true, harsh facts about Iraq fiasco.

PENTAGON & TRADE DEFICIT: (ltr toNYTIMES)

Our skyrocketing trade deficit is worrying. The US media would have you believe that the problem is with our consumers buying far more clothes and computers overseas than we can pay for by our exports.

One factor that's never mentioned is how much of this problem stems from the Pentagon. The expenditures in dozens of overseas bases count as imports. Also,the Pentagon must be one of the biggest importers of petroleum products.

We know that the Pentagon budget exceeds our federal deficit. It's as if the other federal agencies were living within their means; only the Pentagon is allowed to be profligate. (The total annual cost of our two wars is only a fraction of the hundreds of billions shovelled each year to the Pentagon.) And the hundreds of billions going to 'social security' are right now more than balanced by the FICA tax paid by US workers and their employers.

It may be that the Pentagon is also one of the prime contributors to our TRADE deficit!

SUNNIS WORRIED ABOUT 'SHIA CRESCENT': Many Sunni-dominant Arab countries worry about the local Shia minorities they have bullied for centuries,now that a coming oil-rich Shia ministate inIraq looks to be allied with Persian/Shia IRAN! (For instance, two million sullen Shiites live in the oil-rich part of Saudi Arabia!) UnitedPress

The Shia situation is something like that of Kurds, who are scattered as persecuted minorities in several 'Sunni' countries. The difference is this:
thanks to dumb Bushie invasion, Shiite Iraq now has a huge, oil-rich, militarily powerful ally right next door ! Their combined oil/gas-resources might near-match or exceed those of Saudi Arabia!

It doesn't seem likely that Persian/Arab tensions will undermine this alliance. 'Pope' Sistani can't vote in Iraq, as an IRANIAN citizen. And the top Shiite party (with its militia)was training in Iran during part of Saddam's reign. Periodic Sunni slaughter of Shia in Pakistan seems likely to make Iraqi Shia cuddle closer to co-religionists in Iran.
------------
(Iraqi Kurds have no powerful allied neighbors--except America, and--strangely--Israel ! Indeed, Turkey--having temporarily put down its 1/5th Kurdish minority--growls that it might invade if they declare open independence. Also, they need Turkish ports to export their oil--IF they can ever stop the insurgents from sabotaging their pipelines and depots. So for now, Kurds will settle for deFACTO independence from 'all/Iraq' pseudo-government in Baghdad.)

FINAL ELECTION RESULTS:
TOTAL SEATS: 275 (2/3ds needed (183 votes) to elect (ceremonial)President, who will pick real honcho PRIME MINISTER (certainly a Shiite, needs only 140 votes to ratify President's choice).

SHIA COALITION: 128 SEATS (several parties,including SADR's party--this coalition could split)
SUNNI ARABS : 58 SEATS (they thought they were a majority, now claim the election was fixed).
KURDS 53 seats. REUTERS

MOST LIKELY: Shia will lean on Kurds as coalition partners. This will dismay Americans, who have some dream that giving sunni/Arabs political power will disarm insurgency. They don't remember IRA in Ulster: they ran for office, sat in Brit parliament, kept right on bombing in Britain&in Ulster.

A FRENCH ANALYST SAYS, AT GREAT LENGTH:
--that Muslims are inconsistent in objecting to THEIR faith being insulted, when many Muslims insult Judaism all the time, and Christianity often.
(Lyons: Actually I believe Islamic tradition also forbids ever showing the face of Jesus, one of their prophets.)

--that the riots were triggered by cynical Islamist trouble-makers.
UnitedPress
OK---so what? The people who drew and copied the cartoons should have foreseen that they were providing ammunition to these trouble-makers.
--------------------------
We don't have to approve of killer bees; but we should have the sense not to stir them up any further than necessary.
------------
There are usually 3 circles of terrorist supporters:
1) the inner circle of hard men, willing to kill and die for the cause.
2) The next circle of active supporters, who will hide and fund the killers.
3) the huge outer circle of 'verbal' supporters, who are so apathetic they offer only tough words supporting the cause.

If a perceived outrage is offered to the whole group, then people in the 3d circle might CEASE to be apathetic, and move to 2d circle.
People just funding and hiding the hard men might move to the first circle and volunteer to kill and die.

For any given outrage (desecration of Koran, or US bombing innocent Muslims), suppose only 1 in 10,000 Muslims worldwide are moved toward the inner circle. That would mean 100,000 new people helping the terrorists or volunteering to kill Americans and die.

That's the price of your freedom of speech, guys.