Dan Lyons

PARTITION OF IRAQ is finally being discussed !http://www.denverpost.com/frontpage/ci_3767623
This partition (into Kurdland, Shialand, and Sunni/Arab/land) is inevitable; the only question is whether it follows or prevents a horrific civil war.

The Kurds have already gone openly into deFacto secession, which nobody can reverse. 100,000 Shia & Sunnis have already fled from mixed neighborhoods.The new constitution makes deFacto secession by the Shias possible, no matter how the Americans object; and the constitution--imposed by the Bushies!--has insuparable obstacles to any amendment the Shias reject.

The Kurds will grab the oil-soaked Kirkuk region, and Shialand will annex Baghdad. (So much for the city-size embassy we're building there!)

The middle region is the problem. We'll have to hand it over to the Saddamite (secular) insurgents, counting on them to slaughter their Zarqawi-fanatic allies.Also, it will be an empire of sand, with almost no oil resources--the Shia and Kurds will not likely share their oil. (After driving out the Sunnis from their ministates, they can defend their borders from Sunni attack; they outnumber all the Sunni Arabs 4 to 1 ! )

If outside sources (e.g., wealthy Sunni neighbors like SaudiArabia) don't subsidize this middle region for a while, it might indeed fall to Islamist fanatics. American forces might have to stay in this region until it stabilizes under the Baathists, helping them to wipe out the Zarqawists.

DUBIOUS ALLIES: In a town once prominent in supporting Saddam, in a region now controlled by Kurds, US officers have tried to recruit local Sunni youth for our militia. But some of these recruits (even officers!) have been cooperating with the insurgents! "Some people here are helping us; some are shooting us; and some are doing both." WashPost

IRAQ OCCUPATION INSPIRES TERRORISTS, US honcho admits (cryptically: "for some terrorists, Iraq is a cause.")
US report admits that terrorist attacks have multiplied worldwide since our invasion..
But then the report warns that if we get out, terrorists might take over Iraq as a 'safe haven', from which they could launch attacks at us. TIMES ONLINE

That last claim is just silly:

--Our Iraq fiasco will divide the country into 3 ministates: Kurdland, Shialand, and the middle, Sunni/Arab desert area. Sunni terrorists will get no haven in Kurdland or Shialand !
(Of course if we bomb Iran, millions of Shia--in and out of Iraq!--might turn terrorist !)

So we need only to guard against terrorists inSunni/Arab region, which we'll likely hand over to the Saddamite insurgents-- who will then likely turn to slaughter their Zarqawi allies (the most enthusiastic terrorists !

The silliest part of this warning: Terrorists DON'T NEED Iraq as a 'safe haven'. They already have parts of Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen, Indonesia, Phillipines,etc.

IRAQ OIL EXPORTS LOWER THAN EVER ! "The invasion has not only hurt Iraq, it has hurt whole world, desperate for oil." Iraq has top reserves, after Saudis AND IRAN- -but US army has NOT been able to prevent insurgent sabotage--or widespread corruption.
Iraq govt. tried to solve pipeline-sabotage problem in North by shipping oil to Turkish outlets by truck; but of course, insurgents easily blew up trucks, so drivers refused to go. BOSTON.COM

When Shia work their deFacto secession from fictitious central govt. in Iraq, their ministate, allied with Iran, will likely control more oil and natural gas than Saudis!

OIL PRICE BACK UP on increased danger of Bushies attacking Iran, after Iran was reported as 'defying UN'. Iran says it won't cut back oil exports (e.g., to punish sanctions)--but speculators are worrying that tension might 'worsen', i.e., that Bushies might attack. BOSTON.COM

Of course as crude rises, so does US gas-price--only faster, because US Big Oil grabs the chance to increase their profits !

"No military strike at Iran--and NO 'COALITION OF THE WILLING !" says top EU honcho. REUTERS
US media talk of the demands on Iran of 'THE WEST' (never mind Russia & China)--but it looks as if our only ally even TALKING tough is Chirac in France...does anyone think France will join us attacking Iran? British honcho Jack Straw has denounced nuking Iran as 'just nuts'! Well, yes, but that doesn't mean that Bushies won't do it.
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WORSENING RELATIONS WITH SYRIA: UnitedPress
That makes sense; Syria hasn't much oil. If Bushies have to back down about attacking IRAN, then they may try to cover their humiliation by bombing the hell out of Syria.

Observers have warned that if the present regime is ousted, and fanatic Syrian Islamists take over, then both Lebanon and Iraq will suffer. Oh, well, that's in the LONG run !

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT SURGES UP nearly 5% in 1st quarter. TimesOnline
And DowJones is way up. However, 2 in 3 Americans are 'deeply pessimistic' about economy. [See 'invigorating' post below.]

This suggests that GDP growth is NOT a good measure of changes in economic welfare of average American.

FIRST MAINSTREAM PAPER NOTICES IRAN'S PLAN (next week ? !) to open a new oil-exchange --called a 'bourse' (competing with the big guys in London & NewYork.) This exchange would 'denominate' oil in EUROS, not dollars. If it caught on--unlikely, say the experts--it would weaken the dollar somehow. /Dubai is also trying to open up an alternative bourse.
Iran is making long-term gas deals with both India and China.

This guy notes without comment that Saddam was trying something similar before we attacked. Our occupation govt. immediately reversed this move.
CHRsciMonitor

If you type Iran + bourse on GOOGLE, you'll find nearly TWO MILLION references, but NOT ONE from our mainstream Media! If this proposal can be so easily pooh-poohed, why don't our tame-poodle media want us to hear about it?

for Iran + "oil exchange" on Google you'll find almost 60 thousand references--but only the one to CSMonitor is to a mainstream source !

'POPE' SISTANI CALLS FOR DISARMED MILITIAS. On the other hand, Moqtadr Sadr (Sistani's rival for leadership, and the man heading one of the biggest militias--the Mehdi) pointedly did NOT second this idea. AlJazeera

As long as the Shias feel threatened by Sunnis, and vice-versa, the militias will count as legitimate.
Americans say neighborhoods are NOT being emptied by ethnic cleansing. Iraqi authorities disagree.

PENTAGON MURDER FORCE: Super-trained 'Seals' would sneak in and eliminate a few 'bad guys' (e.g., Mugabe or CHAVEZ (!) ) then disappear. This retired officer pretends to sympathize with this project, but wryly satirizes it. For one thing, it requires precise INTELLIGENCE about the country to be 'penetrated'...not bloody likely !

This guy says (wryly) that this is the best option Pentagon has for fighting terrorists--because it has NO OTHER WAY to do so. UnitedPress

That's the unseen elephant in our living-room--the absolute USELESSNESS of the Pentagon for protecting our Homeland from terrorists. Yet Congress shovels $10 to the Pentagon for every $1 for Homeland Defense !

"FUNCTIONING GOVT. THE KEY to disarming insurgents & Shia militias", says US general.
Now 'functioning' means providing jobs, clean water, electricity, reducing corruption, improving administration in 'our army... FinTimes

Well, maybe, but...
--US has completely cut out money for reconstructing Iraq !

--Insurgents are still able to sabotage oil exports, cutting off the main source of $ for the new govt.
They just shot the sister of new vice-president.

--Both Kurds & Shias are covertly preparing deFacto Secession (allowable under present constitution)--they'll take practically all the oil money with them.
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Inspector-honcho says a huge amt of Iraq oil-production (even 1/5th of the petrol products imported!) are smuggled to some other country! This problem is added to insurgent-sabotage problem, and the oil stolen from the pipelines by smugglers.

Only 1/4th of US-funded rehab projects for oil-infrastructure have been completed.
AlJazeera

INVIGORATING NEWS FOR DEMS: The big question is this: granted that Bush is dead in the water, he's NOT RUNNING this year ! Will GOP lose control of Congress? (at least of the House?--so Dem investigations can expose the criminality of Bushie regime ?)

Going by ALL previous history, GOP control is pretty much assured. But if you look back to WARTIME elections, it's a different story. An article by a PoliSci professor in USATODAY
says that voters here have always punished the President's party in Congress for any extended war.

E.G.: Big Congressional losses for Dems in 1918 (WWI), again in 1950 (Korea), again in 1966 (Vietnam), GOP in 1970 (Vietnam)...and most astonishing: Dems in 1942 (WWII), even though we were responding to a Japanese attack ! even though popular Roosevelt went on tour to help Dem Congressional candidates !

Once again: this gives invigorating hope for Dems this year (especially with spiking gas prices, possible indictment of Rove, and predicted Bushie blunders in the coming hurricane season !). But there's no room for relaxing complacency--one can expect dramatic distractions re: abortion, gays, child molesters,etc.
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Two in three voters are 'deeply pessimistic' about economy; only 36% approve of Bush; ONLY 22% APPROVE OF CONGRESS ! UnitedPress

"IRAN COULDN'T BLOCK HORMUZ", says Thinktank. MIDDLEEAST NEWSLINE

The question is whether suicide bombers, e.g., in small boats, could sink enough ships in the Strait to block the large portion of the world oil trade that must pass through this strait.
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If Iran simply stopped exporting its own oil, one observer said, this would jack up world prices for crude oil to$134 per barrel (almost twice the present rate)--this would spike up US gas prices even more--just before Nov. elections!

SURPRISE ! US falls behind Europe in preparing for possible Flu Pandemic.
CNN

We must add to the danger from a natural avian-flu pandemic the extra danger of a war-germ pandemic. But the Bushies show little real interest in such issues of Homeland Protection.

'BELLICOSE STATEMENTS':
The ruler of the world's 'sole superpower' (with thousands of H-bombs at his disposal) hints strongly that he might nuke Iran. Then their top mullah remarks that IF US attacks them, they will do what they can to harm US interests all over the world--and they have many ways to do that!

Then a journalist remarks about the MULLAH'S 'bellicose statement." !

SENATE FIRES SHOT ACROSS PENTAGON'S BOW !
They voted to CUT BUSH'S WAR REQUEST BY $2 BILLION, (which would go instead to border security and the coast guard--i.e., for Homeland Protection !)

Hawk Hilary of course wept that money was taken from GI safety measures like body armor.
Sponsor of this diversion retorted that Pentagon could afford to take $2 billion from NON-WAR parts of the budget. (Of $550 billion, less than $100 billion goes for Iraq war !)
SEATTLEPI

GAS UP, BUSH DOWN: His popularity is now at 32%, as low as Nixon's during the Watergate scandal. INDEPENDENT

Dems' problem: how to get voters to turn against GOP Congressmen, up for election this November. (Dem Congressmen are about as unpopular as GOPs--on the other hand, a strong plurality favor Dems controlling Congress. On the 3d hand, most voters LIKE their local Representative ! )

"In TheirOwnWords" report(Feb'06)on communications by Iraq insurgents--by prestigious (anti-insurgent) Internatl.CrisisGroup.

Most interesting: last section: "Implications for Coalition(US) Policy":
ASSESSMENT:
--present US approach is NOT WORKING: killing insurgents, eliminating leaders, destroying their sanctuaries and lines of communication.--Insurgents are able to replenish ranks and maintain necessary civilian support.
--Leaders killed are quickly replaced.

--With strong social networks, ample weapons & money, powerful message--ins. can maintain a constant level of violence.

--Ins. takes advantage flexibly of too-few GIs, fragility of 'our' militias--so ins. can attack at times & places it chooses.

--trend: ins. more united & confident, sensitive to Sunni-supporters' demands, adept at learning from our successes/failures and their own.
RECOMMENDATIONS:
--reach out to Sunnis (& enrage Shia? !)

--amend the constitution (when huge majority of Kurds & Shia MPS like the present constitutional license for their deFactoSecession ? !)

--punish GIs misconduct; stop torture, & COLLECTIVE PUNISHMENT (they never mention our 5 airstrikes each day!)

--force our new puppet-govt. to disarm the Kurd & Shia militias (bloody likely!)

--make very clear that the oil is theirs, not ours, and that we will withdraw as soon as our new puppet govt. requests this. (Then why the permanent bases we're building? Why our city-size embassy being built in GreenZone? How dumb do they think Iraqis are !)
Our puppets (fearing their own slaughter when we leave) can be bribed to call for us to stay on.------
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These are sensible judgments & recommendations: again, they are really an EPITAPH:" these measures MIGHT HAVE worked--but of course they weren't implemented."

RICE, RUMMY RUSH TO IRAQ TO APPROVE OF NEW GOVT.
This is the 'kiss of death' for any hopes of the new regime's pacifying the insurgents--or for that matter, the followers of Sadr!

The visit is aimed at reassuring Americans that now there is hope for our Iraq project.
But just wait !

BUSH SAVES 2+HOURS WORTH OF GAS:
Alarmed by coming election, he brags about cutting input to our national oil reserve stockpile; this would save less than 3 hours worth of US gas consumption. "It's like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic."
Stocks in gas-tanks of US companies have dropped again after 8 weeks of drops;

so (a) staggering profits of the oil companies will continue, and

(b) oil stays over $73 a barrel world-wide. BOSTON.COM
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Election or no, Bush couldn't resist grabbing this chance to give another $ break [postpones payment due for past govt. loans] to money-gorged, profiteering oil companies. REUTERS

WHY CRITICISM OF RUMMY ONLY FROM RETIRED GENERALS?
In the first place, it's a crime for a serving officer to criticize his superiors publicly.

Also: Rummy, more than previous Defence Secretaries, has personally picked all the top generals--guaranteeing yes-men. This includes Gen.Pace, who defended R. publicly. Small wonder that so few will speak up before retirement.

One of the critics turned down his 3d star to retire so he COULD speak up ! Two others had actually commanded forces in Iraq, seeing Rummy's blunders from first-hand.

Generals are furious at Rummy's personal involvement in the torture scandals.

One guy noted that Rummy's arrogance, like Bush's, forbids admitting mistakes--so the continued war will be mismanaged by the same goofy team. DerSpiegel
http://service.spiegel.de/cache/international/0,1518,412905,00.html

There is a new all-star committee to investigate the war (headed by James BakerIII, who endorsed Daddy Bush's wise decision NOT to thrust thru to Baghdad). We can hope that this committee will demand that Bush drop his present crew of bad advisors.

While he's at it, he might do well to respectfully accept God's resignation from his cabinet--the Guidance from that Source has not been sterling!

FRESH LOOK AT IRAQ? A new independent group has been formed, with WhiteHouse approval and Congressional funding, to study what to do now in Iraq. Head honchos are Jas.BakerIII, (the brains behind Reagan), and Lee Hamilton (honcho on sensible--tho largely ignored--committee investigating 9/11 intelligence fiasco). They appointed the rest of the committee.

In an earlier book, Baker said he advised Daddy Bush NOT to thrust to Baghdad, because he feared this would result in exactly the kind of fiasco 'W' caused later.

Decades ago, Lyndon Johnson finally called for advice on elder DeanAcheson, who convinced him that the Viet project couldn't succeed. Johnson withdrew from Pres. race. Observers hope that Baker can dent 'W's pig-headed obstinacy. NYTIMES

"US DOESN'T CARE ABOUT SLAUGHTER OF IRAQIS!" says IRANIAN honcho (plausibly: Americans are mainly concerned--but not quite able--to protect themselves. )So, he says, FIRST security priority for Iraq should be expelling GIs. UnitedPress,24April

DOLLAR LOSING THRONE AS SOLE 'RESERVE' CURRENCY !
The Euro is moving up--that is, more central banks are moving from dollar bonds to EURO bonds ! REUTERS

A theory has been floating around that Iran's real threat to US is its promise to open up a new trading-post (a 'bourse') 'denominating' oil in Euros, not Dollars. (I don't understand this theory--but somehow it says that with oil denominated only in dollars, consumer-countries must buy loads of dollars (in bonds) to buy the oil they need. Given the deFacto bankruptcy of America, the dollar should have collapsed--but not so far, because of its 'reserve' role.)

Type in on GOOGLE Iran + bourse, and you'll get over 1.5 million references--but NOT ONE from mainstream media ! It looks as if these tame poodles have been told to keep this issue out of public awareness--which makes one take the theory more seriously !

It would be ironic indeed if world's money flowed from dollars to euros even BEFORE this Iranian bourse is set up ! Perhaps then the Bushies would see that they'd gain little from bombing Iran !

INCREDIBLE BUT TRUE: LOWER OIL PRICE MEANS LOWER PROFIT FOR BIG OIL COMPANIES! REUTERS
You'd think that HIGHER prices for crude oil would mean LESS ROOM for oil company profits--instead, the more expensive crude oil is, the MORE PROFIT EXXON,ETC. CAN ADD TO COST OF GASOLINE ! What saps US drivers are !

LESSONS from binLaden's latest screed :
--the incompetence of Bushie intelligence services: even after nearly 5 years, they cant find him --even with the (purported) help of the Pakistan governmeUS is a blind giant lunging around near a cliff. This is a really dangerous man; he inspires, say, sabotage of the industrial world's oil sources. We know from Iraq and Nigeria how effective such 'low-tech' sabotage can be.

--the silliness of the resolve to attack 'those countries harboring terrorists'.Pakistan is obviously such a country--but the Islamist fanatics there would love to have us bomb Islamabad and weaken the central government, so they could take over--and be the first Islamist country armed with fully-developed nukes.

--the irrelevance in the 'war on terror' of the Pentagon's snazzy bombers and missiles, useful only against nations, NOT against stateless individual terrorists.

Also the Pentagon's uselessness in protecting our Homeland from terrorists; yet Congress shovels $10 to the Pentagon for every $1 spent on Homeland Protection.

SIXTY-ONE GIs KILLED IN 23 APRIL DAYS. (ONLY 62 were killed in 31 days in January--fewer in Feb. & March. SEATTLEPI
Attempted 'Iraqization' of war has meant more Iraq deaths, but no letup in killing of GIs.
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NINETY CASUALTIES JUST IN BAGHDAD ON MONDAY: REUTERS
(Casualties vs. 'number killed' : the number wounded can't be ignored--especially of Iraq civilians, who have little access to the 'magic medicine' offered to wounded GIs.)
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OUR OTHER WAR: As Taliban attacks increase, Brit honcho warns that Taliban might take over Afghanistan again--protecting alQaeda ! SEATTLEPI
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Entangled in two failing wars, one wonders why Bushies want to start a THIRD (ferocious) WAR WITH IRAN!

"WE DON'T KNOW IF IRAN CAN MAKE NUKES ." say knowledgeable Congressmen.
REUTERS

A maxim of common-sense decency says "When in doubt, DON'T BOMB !"

But such an attitude is far from Bushies' minds.
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"POL.TENSIONS--(i.e., concern that US might attack Iran)--HAVE SPIKED OIL UP $15 (20%)."
says Qatar honcho. AlJazeera

'I'LL ABSORB MILITIAS INTO 'ALL/IRAQ' ARMY," says new PrimeMinister.
HeraldSun

Who's he kidding? No chance of folding Kurd Peshmergas into natl. army. They've announced they won't even let natl. army operate inside their 'ministate' boundary !

That leaves the Shia militias (Mehdi & Bahd). They may pretend they're folded in (in order to get natl. paychecks, & US training & arms) but everyone will know their real allegiance is to their Shia militia!

'LET'S GO HYDROGEN !" Bush gushes. Forbes
But 'hyrogen-cars' won't come on-line (with filling-stations) for many years. That's why Bushies push Hydrogen--it's to distract us from now-available HYBRID cars like TOYOTA PRIUS.
(These cars can be adjusted to use mainly electric recharging from garage, and get over 130MPGof gas. That thought horrifies Bushies and their big-oil buddies!)

Hybrids combine advantages of electric and of gasoline. If you forget to recharge (fatal for all-electric cars) you can run for a while on gasoline. No special filling-stations needed. The next step is to use wind, solar, tide power to generate electricity.)

3 CARDINALS SEE CONDOMS AS 'LESSER EVIL' IN THE AGE OF AIDS !
ABC/NEWS
One also said that abortion could be 'lesser evil' if mother's life is in danger.

He also said that zygotes (where father's & mother's chromosomes have not yet combined) should not count yet as fully human. That would mean that the very important 'morning-after ' pill could not be condemned as murderous abortion , even if it blocked 'uterus-nesting' by the zygote !
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The POPE now ASKS FOR STUDY ON CONDOMS! GUARDIAN

AN EPITAPH, NOT A PROPOSAL:
"HELP NEEDED FROM OTHER NATIONS to avert civil war in Iraq', says former US official there.

The constitution we imposed, he says,must be amended so that Kurds and Shia don't keep control of the oil in their regions--i.e., practically all Iraq's oil !. UPI.com
BLOODY LIKELY ! As I understand it, a 2/3 vote is needed to amend this constitution--but the Kurds + Shiites control most seats in this new Parliament.

We must convince Iraqis, he says, that we're not keeping our military there permanently. But we do intend to do just that, as Iraqis can SEE from the huge, permanent military bases we're building, along with the city-sized embassy we're building in Baghdad.

And of course the Shia will NOT give up their control over the security forces--they'd be fools to do so, with the Sunni insurgents still bombing Shia. If we continue to train and arm the 'all/Iraq' army & police, we'll just be training Shia militia for the coming civil war.

He wants other nations to help arbitrate between Sunni/Arabs, Kurds and Shia. Why would they want to get involved in our incurable fiasco? He even dreams we can get IRAN'S cooperation, while Bushies are threatening to nuke them !--threats realistic enough to spur speculators to spike up oil-price to $74 a barrel.

Books like this are not recommendations, but epitaphs--"Here's what might have worked, if Bushies were not so loony."

'IRAQ DEMOCRACY IS A FLOP !' says an Iraqi poliSci professor. 'These pols are incompetent."
Today alJa'afari is pulling out as obstacle to a 'natl.unity govt.' (probably after pressure from 'Pope' Sistani.) So a govt. of some sort may soon be formed.

(Indeed, a close associate of alJa'afari , alMaliki, will be advanced; Sunnis & Kurds will apparently accept him. FinTimes )

But the selfishness and ignorance of these pols will remain. Bushies may fondly hope this new govt. can slow the slide to civil war and pacify the insurgents..but there is no evidence at all for such optimism.

Sooner or later,Iraq must forget about real 'central govt' and split into 3 ministates: Kurdland, Shialand, and Sunni/Arab land (controlled by insurgents!) Only then will the wholesale killing be lessened.

IRAN CRISIS MAY LOWER PRICE (RAISING NEEDED INTEREST RATES) ON US LONG-TERM BONDS, at least for a while. REUTERS
--Usually in a world crisis (threatened US attack on Iran) money flows to'safe haven', which is usually US bonds. But this time OPEC countries may CUT their huge investments in our bonds, which would raise our iterest rates.

--In the long-run, though, this oil-crisis will likely cut US growth, impoverish Americans--then our bonds will be worth more!

IRAQ EXPERT LAYS OUT BUSHIE STRATEGIC ERRORS: Anthony Cordesmann is not so interested in laying blame, but in warning about avoiding such errors in the ongoing 'war on terror': Rummy & his henchmen of course underestimated chance of insurgency, ignored warnings from other experts and past experience. UnitedPress

He doesn't point out that Bush's insistence on keeping the same goofs in control means that the ongoing wars will be bungled in the same way.

ZARQAWITES SUCCEEDING: They've launched merciless bombing attacks at Shias, provoking assassinations of Sunnis by Shia militia. This moves Sunnis into stronger support for insurgents (and cuts off any move by Saddamite insurgents to double-cross Zarqawites to make a deal with Shia & U.S.). FinTimes

ROAD-BLOCKS FOR US ATTACK ON IRAN: [Google20Apr]
--Russia & China will not participate in any world-embargo (or UNSec.Council sanctions) vs. Iran. After all, US has used its veto repeatedly to block any UN move against its master Israel.

--Oil up to $74 a barrel on Thursday. Bushies may have thought they could bluster and then attack Iran after election, without paying any price. But oil-speculators have spiked up world oil-price already, and US gas prices have spiked, just 7 months before elections.

It's important for Dems to point out that Bushies' eagerness to start a THIRD WAR is reason why their gas costs so much already, with future spikes ahead--especially if hurricanes give oil companies an excuse.

STRONG HINTS THAT FED.RESERVE MAY STOP RAISING SHORT-RUN RATES.
alJazeera

Bankers love to raise interest rates to benefit wealthy lenders. But now they fear they may 'overshoot' (especially when housing bubble is bursting) and cause recession just before their GOP Congressional buddies are up for election in November !

HUGE ROCKET just misses US embassy in Kabul. WashPost

Taliban seems determined to keep us reminded of our OTHER war in Afghanistan. (A given GI there has about the same chance to be killed/wounded as a GI in Iraq.)

And now of course Bushies are huffing & puffing about our tangling with IRAN in a THIRD WAR!
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On Wed., crude oil jumped up to $73 a barrel. The speculators may now think that our attack on Iran is more likely.
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The tame, self-censoring mainstream media all tell us that jumping oil prices are from 'Iran's nuclear ambitions'. More accurately, they're based on speculators' fears that US will launch an unprovoked Pearl-Harbor attack on Iran ! ..which will of course cut world's oil supply severely, and result in ever-higher prices.

CHINA & AMERICA, OR CHINA VS. AMERICA:

With President Hu's visit to U.S., strange relations with China get emphasized:

--More and more, they're buying up world oil on long-term contracts, freezing out America from the oil our greed needs.

--They won't back our world bullying (especially vs. Iran) because all they care about is getting enough oil.

--They sell far more to us than they buy from us; so they have billions & billions of dollars in our bonds. If they started sellilng, they'd lose as our bonds lost value--but the first owners to sell will suffer less, which is the recipe for a panic. It's said that China and Japan have enough dollars to buy every US corporation!

--And of course they know that Pentagon demands for trillions of dollars are backed by open US plans for future military clash with China !

ANOTHER BUSH FOLLY:The picture of the gigantic US embassy rising in Baghdad provokes several reflections :[USATODAY]

--Bush team said they were going to pull back GIs from cities, to avoid provoking undoubted Iraq resentment; we were going to 'stand down' as our Iraqi forces 'stand up'. Imagine the feeling of Iraqis, lacking clean water and electricity, when they view these very-permanent infidel-invaders' skyscrapers. Iraqis might also reflect that, while spending $592 million on this 'city of palaces', Congress has passed almost no money this year for 'reconstructing' Iraq, and that a large part of the money already provided was spent for security, or simply embezzled.

--Imagine the increased rage Muslims will feel all over the world over this grand display of US arrogance. If only one in ten thousand Muslims is newly moved by these pictures to line up with terrorists, that makes one hundred thousand new volunteers, or supporters of people out to attack our very vulnerable Homeland.

--Mortar shells have landed inside the 'protected' Green Zone. These shells might carry nerve-gas, against which no gas-masks are any use, or anthrax spores.Or 'dirty bombs' just outside the fortifications might render the whole area uninhabitable for months. This monstrous embassy will surely be within 'next-door' range of Iranian missiles, when the loony Bushies attack there. Given its size, it would be hard to miss!

FORTY-FOUR % OF GOPs say we should pull out some or all GIs from Iraq.
Sixty-Four % of Americans generally say we should pull out.

57% of Americans think we won't win this war.

Only 32% back Bush's running of this war Editor&Publisher

YET ANOTHER MONTH WILL BE NEEDED to form Iraq govt. Shia bloc says "If you guys block our alJa'afari, we'll block the posts you expect !" AlJazeera

Tension between Shia factions,between Sadrites backing alJa'afri, and another faction who hid out in Iran during the Iran/Iraq war.

Also, fault-line in anti-Shia coalition: secularists (US pawns) want Allawi in as Vice-President, but Sunnis say that post is theirs ! (When in power, Allawi OKd US vicious attack on Sunni city of Fallujah !)

Who really cares? Only the Bushies, who fondly think a 'natl.unity' govt. will pacify Iraq !
Meanwhile, ethnic cleansing is leaving hundreds of empty houses in Baghdad, and pitched battles are being fought between Sunnis & Shia !

SUNNI ARABS IN MIDEAST are surprisingly not-unhappy about Iran's prospect of getting nukes--even tho Iran is non-Arab and Shiite! Any defiance of US & Israel is welcomed.
Boston.com

SEVENTY-TWO $ A BARREL! REUTERS 18Apr.
'On Iran Fears'. / Bullshit. Fear is that US & Israel will bomb Iran, and thus cut off Iranian oil, also oil going thru Strait of Hormuz.

Bush refuses to rule out NUKE strike. REUTERS (Even tame poodle JackStraw in Britain says nuke strike would be 'just nuts'.) So what?

One good aspect: Bushies may be planning to wait for bombing until after election, or just before. But speculators are already spiking up oil prices,which will hit US voter/drivers just months before election!
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SEVENTY DOLLARS A BARREL ! Bloomberg Crude oil touched that level on 17Apr, matching peak during Katrina crisis. 10% of world's oil goes to fuel monstrous, wasteful US vehicles.

Analysts gave as reason worries about Iran oil-supply, which might get cut off if Bushies attacked Iran. Also, Iran might cut off oil-flow (1/4 of world supply!) which goes thru Strait of Hormuz.

I've been saying that experts don't take Bushie threats seriously; otherwise, speculators would spike up the price of oil. Now it looks as if these loony threats ARE being taken seriously.

US oil companies will use expensive crude as an excuse to spike up our gas prices and increase their prodigious profits. GOP SUV-owners will pay the main price..how delightful.

'DON'T BOMB IRAN--YET !" says pundit EdwardLuttwak in COMMENTARY.
He thinks they are--at a minimum--3 years from being able to make even one nuke.He thinks Iran & America have mutual interests; we ought to be allies. His vague references to American 'interests' (the interests of our corporate billionaires) makes a reader suspicious.

He thinks the so-called religious leaders are openly corrupt, and despised by middle-class, educated Iranians. (But what of the primitive Iranians? They apparently voted for this zany President.) Luttwak thinks the ethnic minorities (totalling almost half the population) are not loyal to the regime.But he also admits that like any dictatorship, this one can't be ousted without a war. All this sounds pretty sensible. (He doesn't mention that being bombed might make Iranians go from lukewarm to wholehearted loyalty ! There was not a crisis of loyalty during the awful years of the war with Iraq.)

His article is full of detailed claims about the exact state of Iran's nuclear and other technology. Yet he nowhere cites evidence to support these claims. And knowing the laughable inability of our intelligence agencies..in fact one neoconHawk says we ought to attack now, because WE CAN'T TRUST our intelligence agencies' opinions that Iran is far from a nuclear capability !

Luttwak actually claims (with no evidence cited) that Shiite Iran is helping Sunni insurgents in Iraq to slaughter Iraq Shiites ! This improbable claim alone is enough to make one doubt his other unsupported claims.

He says we simply can't allow Iran to develop nuclear bombs. But if they got a few of these, only Israel would be likely to be bombed. And that would be suicidal--but then, the President's loyalty to the crazy apolcalyptic cult of the 'soon-to-return-12th imam' means that he might not object to national suicide.

(Of course a foreign observer might note that George Bush also gets advice directly from God, and that millions of Americans expect the Rapture immanently; so the Iranian regime is perhaps no crazier than the American regime--which has thousands of H-bombs available to bring on Apocalypse.)

Luttwak nowhere mentions the strongest reason not to bomb Iran--their formidable power to retaliate. That discredits his whole analysis.

US SUPPLIES COME IN BY PLANE? Many do, and so there are fewer US casualties hauling supplies. UnitedPress

--However, that has not lowered US casualties in general (especially high since 1 April ! )

--This gives greater incentives for insurgents to practice aiming shoulder-mounted anti-plane missiles. Once they get the knack, they can use these missiles IN IRAQ AND ELSEWHERE!

ENRICHED U COULD BE USED IN 'DIRTY BOMBS' BY IRAN.
Rumors say that US is planning to grab oil-producing area of Iran. Iranians know that setting fire to their wells won't work. But they could use their enriched uranium to set off 'dirty bombs' at oil-sites.

A dirty bomb is just a large ball of explosive surrounded by a radioactive shell. No chain-reaction is needed. They render a large area uninhabitable for months or years. Iranians might prefer to have their oil regions inaccessible to having them occupied by enemies. After all, the longer their oil stays in the ground, the more it will be worth.

A dirty bomb could be set off near Baghdad GreenZone, rendering our monstrous new embassy uninhabitable.

This uranium could also be donated to terrorists, who could smuggle it into US to make dirty bombs, and render city-centers here uninhabitable.
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WILL ATTACK ON IRAN BE BY ISRAEL? UnitedPress (with tacit approval by US, Britain, and SaudiArabia). Of course Iran will respond by attacking all 4 countries.

So what would be gained? US would publicly disapprove of Israel's strike. Then, when Iran attacks American targets (say, in Iraq) the Bushies could indignantly unleash all their airpower on Iran.
It would be a one-two punch. Of course, the GIs in Iraq would be slaughtered in any case; it's not clear that the Bushies care much about them.

NOW IT'S EIGHT GENERALS CRITICIZING RUMMY: including Wesley Clark, former NATO commander.

GOP response: Under Rummy, we killed a lot of bad guys. (but what counts is how many are left, how much damage they can do.) Also, GOP notes, US Homeland hasn't been attacked since 9/11.
REUTERS

No expert thinks our escape from 2d attack is due to Bushie precautions (they won't fund Homeland Defense properly!) and certainly nobody thinks it was because of any shrewd actions by Rummy's Pentagon !

US majority doesn't trust Bush any more on security issues; and they now count Dems as trustworthy as GOP on this issue. (GOP will likely be discredited further when they bungle the coming hurricane season.)

However, Bushies are in win/win situation. When we ARE attacked again (as we surely will be!) then millions of dumb Americans will cuddle closer to Daddy.

FORTY-SEVEN GIs DEAD IN 15 DAYS OF APRIL.

'NATL. UNITY GOVT.' is still on hold.

35 Iraqis killed on Sunday. SeattlePI

MUBAREK SPOKE OPENLY OF WORRIES OF OTHER SUNNI ARAB LEADERS, that region's Shia may be loyal first to the SUCCESSFUL Shia regime in Iran !

The big SCIRI faction in Iraq actually fought for Iran vs. (Saddam's) Iraq in that awful war.
'Pope' Sistani couldn't vote in Iraq because he was born in Iran.

This writer suggests that Sunni leaders had better be more friendly to their Shia subjects (about 20% across the region) if they expect to wean them from Iran. UnitedPress

Observers must roll their eyes at the dumbness of the Bushies, to overthrow Saddam and pave 'democratic' takeover in Iraq by supermajority Shia, controlling most of Iraq oil, and allied with US archenemy Iran !

ALTERNATIVE MINIMUM TAX: It was put in to be sure that the wealthy (no matter what tricky deductions they claimed) would pay a reasonable tax. It wasn't indexed thoroughly for inflation, so now in '06 it will hit people making $50,000 to $2000,000.

The NYTIMES headline said 'middle-class' will be hit. But the median U.S. income is lower than $50,000 to $200,000 ! (In '03 it was $43,000 /GOOGLE). So only the top-half of US earners must worry about AMT. And people making less than $60K won't be BADLY hurt.

DOZENS OF CASUALTIES ON SUNDAY, including 5 GIs wounded ('not seriously).
AlJa'afari still will not yield his position as PrimeMinister (backed by Sadrites).
USATODAY

"IRAN CAN RETALIATE PAINFULLY', say two former US security honchos. REUTERS
"Their terrorist capacity is far higher than that of alQaeda!"

If there is to be a US attack on Iran, it will likely come either AFTER Nov. elections, or just before.
Many dumb Americans will rejoice at seeing bombs go off in Iran; then the retaliation will come after the election. (Iran would be smart to have some visible retaliation ready IMMEDIATELY after the bombs start to fall.)

OVER FOUR YEARS ago, 9/11 happened, and we all knew that our Homeland was in danger from terrorists. The SARS pandemic, and the memory of the horrible flu pandemic in 1918, made the threat specific.

There could be no cheaper and more effective attack on our people than to infect martyrs with some fatal germ and have them spread it across the poor regions of our country--say, along the routes of Greyhound buses in the South.. (We're the only 'advanced' country that has such primitive public-health systems for our poor ! By the time the pandemic was detected, it would have spread to the middle-class regions.)

Vaccines? Our pharmaceutical companies long ago quit working on new vaccines; they weren't as profitable as, say , medicines for heart trouble or diabetes.The national government could have subsidized vaccine research. And they did start some program called 'bioshield'--but it was miserably funded, and no results have been reported.

We can't come up with a final vaccine until we know what exact properties the new war-germ (or avian-flu germ) has. We have to come up with a program that will enable us to make new vaccines super-quickly. Now we hear the Bushies, worried also about avian-flu, have started funding such a program--funding it adequately? In any case, STARTING OVER FOUR YEARS AFTER 9/11 !

And we have to have a public-health program that will detect new infections--at a time when we already face an urgent shortage of nurses! One of the most laughable ideas is the Bushies' idea of 'drive-ins' where people could get diagnosed quickly. That leaves out one important factor; the only real weapon we have is QUARANTINE--infected people would be forcibly sent to death-camps, to keep them away from the rest of us. Once people realize this, they will hide their sick, and frustrate the quarantine system.
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Then there's NEGATIVE quarantine: people can stay at home, away from possible infectors. One scientist described this as like a worldwide blizzard, 12-18 months long. And the government is encouraging people to lay in supplies for a long time at home. (They're going to expand the internet, so more people can work from home on a computer.)

I'm encouraging middle-class friends to buy land a small distance away from their city, with water & electricity available. Several congenial familes can join together. They could dig a huge 'basement-home' ahead of time, and when the danger is more urgent, they can move a couple of trailers onto the land. Husbands would have to go to work, and stay away from the families, supplying them with food,etc. This might work to spare the children.

To estimate the danger (how much trouble and expense is rational, and how much it's rational to risk ridicule if such elaborate procedures turn out not to be needed) we must add the danger from war-germs to the danger from avian flu. My guess is that the resultant danger justifies MUCH trouble and expense and risk-of-ridicule.

'UNITY GOVT' IS NO MAGIC PILL: [ SeattlePI ]Suppose Shiites are willing to give up alJa'afri. Suppose Sunnis & Kurds are holding some govt. posts. The latter has happened before, and did not make for peace.

The real issues are tougher. Can Kurds and Shiites go into defactoSecession ? (The present constiutuion, imposed by Bushies, says yes. And 2/3ds vote is needed to amend the constitution..never happen!) How much terrirory will Kurds be allowed to grab around Kirkuk?

How can Shia militias be curbed?

Nobody really has solutions for any of these problems--let alone how to curb the Sunni insurgents!

US SHIFTING SUPPORT TO SUNNIS? WashPost It's as if Bushies just realized that 'democracy' in Iraq means rule by the supermajority of Shia, allied with Iran !

They may have also just realized that, in training 'all/Iraq' army, they are really training and arming Shia militia.

If Shia come to believe US is switching sides, we may face a Shia 'second-front' in Iraq. Indeed Brits near Basra seem to be facing that already.

This may speed up Shialand's deFacto secession: they'll have most Iraqis, the only seaport, and MOST OF THE OIL !

FORTY-TWO KILLED ON 15APR. ALJAZEERA
(Many more wounded.)
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TWENTY-FOUR GI CASUALTIES THURSDAY: 2 dead, 2 critically wounded.
FORBES

It's said that insurgents are concentrating on killing Iraqis, 'because GIs are too well-protected.'
But 40 GIs have been killed in the first 15 days of April.

It turns out that insurgents are able to kill lots of Iraqis AND ALSO GIs. And the civil war they have deliberately provoked helps produce chaos in Iraq, to show the people that the 'government' AND the U.S forces are ineffective.

"ONLY FIVE OUT OF 1000 GENERALS DISAGREE WITH ME !" snickers Rummy.

But never in recent history have generals publicly demanded resignation of a Defense Secretary! Perhaps never in all history! (Those demanding are RETIRED generals; those still on duty are afraid for their careers.)

Bush will never fire Rummy; war will continue till '09, run by the same fools.

..UNLESS Congress intervenes ! They wouldn't have to cut war-funds, just the extra Pentagon funds (only a small part of Pentagon wealth is spent on our two current wars!) Then the horrified War billionaires might pressure Rummy to resign.

HOWEVER, the GOP Congress will never defy Bush.

'OUR' IRAQI MILITIAS CAN'T DEFEND THEMSELVES. 80 of 'our' soldiers set out in a convoy from Najaf.
They were ambushed; only 35 returned. Westfall

'Our' soldiers can 'drop out' any time they wish--including during a battle ! and they do. USATODAY
Iraqi leaders say that if they punished deserters, they'd have NO VOLUNTEERS AT ALL.
They often serve till the get a certain amount of money, then disappear.

US tried to turn over Baghdad security to 'our' militia. This failed. GIs are back on patrol in Baghdad.
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'Our' Iraqi troops are NOT 'standing up'. If we wait for this, we will wait a hell of a while before our GIs can 'stand down'.

EARLY FOETUSES CAN'T FEEL PAIN: Brit psychologist says nerve-circuits are ready to register pain at TWENTY-EIGHT weeks (more than 6 months) after conception. UnitedPress

So worries about pain from EARLY abortions are misguided. And of course the morning-after pill either blocks conception or removes embryo before it nests in uterus..no pain possible there.

The big issue now is this pill, which could prevent real abortions. But the 'pro-life' people are not out to prevent real abortions, but rather to punish female sinners with unwanted children--which of course especially punishes the children !

Americans are now rejecting political/military intervention overseas[USATODAY,14Apr] . This is quite sensible. We have an isolationist population; we can't interest enough even of our elite youths in studying foreign languages and alien cultures. So we can't produce the large cadre of knowledgeable candidates for our intelligence services that would be necessary for intelligent foreign intervention.

The former CIA head told Congress that it would be at least 5 years before we could produce a competent intelligence service--emphasis on 'at least'.

USA is a blind giant, lunging around aggressively near a cliff. We're told that, after 9/11 we MUST intervene. But this 'MUST' doesn't imply that we CAN intervene intelligently--especially after the Bush-team has alienated our possible allies who might have shared with us intelligence information.

We should concentrate on needed precautions for protecting our Homeland (e.g., inspecting the thousands of huge ship-containers entering our ports each day, each possibly containing a nuke or other terrorist supplies.)

SEVERAL ANALYSES OF POSSIBLE US ATTACK ON IRAN: in WashPost

All of these are predicated on Iran's 'nuke' threat, even though it's admitted that an Iranian nuke is years away. NOT ONE mentions possibility that Bushies are reacting to economic threat from Iran's switch away from DOLLAR-denominated oil, and Iran's plan to open up a new oil-trading-post (a 'bourse') NOT restricted to dollar.

This may be a silly theory (I don't really understand it); but ONE AND ONE-HALF MILLION posts can be found for IRAN + BOURSE on GOOGLE. It seems that NOT ONE is from mainstream media.

It looks as if these tame poodles have been warned by Bushies NOT to tell Americans about this theory...which makes a sensible person take this theory more seriously.

ETHNIC CLEANSING ACCELERATES: Sixty-Five Thousand have fled their neighborhoods, threatened by neighbors of a different sect..Rate doubled last week. US says 1300 have been killed since shrine bombing. UnitedPress (not clear if that includes Shia slaughtered by insurgent bombs.)

US HAS TRAINED AND USED 150,000 'SECURITY' POLICE, says Interior minister. They have uniforms like policemen, and US perhaps hired former Saddamites without proper screening. They (plus 30,000 private security men) may be the ones assassinating, after torture, 1300 Iraqis last month--not the offical police, says the minister. INDEPENDENT

SIX RETIRED GENERALS CALL FOR RUMMY OUTING: and Bushies retort that these guys were told of Iraq plans, and didn't object. REUTERS

That shows (a) that on-duty generals don't show a lot of courage; and

(b) that Rummy's civilian team scared off honest military advice about the folly of invading Iraq. (Remember when they fired top general because he said, absurdly enough, that the invasion would require SEVERAL HUNDRED THOUSAND troops.)

SENSIBLE SENATOR DOUBTS MILITARY ACTION VS. IRAN: Chuck Hagel says attack would NOT be a 'viable, feasible, responsible' action. REUTERS

But how does that help to predict what Bushies will actually do?

SHIA TRY WEDGE BETWEEN SUNNIS & KURDS: Kurds are the ones blocking a new govt. They refuse to form a coalition again with Shia to name, with 2/3 vote, President trio (who would then name Prime Minister, the post that counts.)

So Shiites say they might back a SUNNI as President( an honorary position) , instead of a Kurd. And Sunni groups now say they might accept alJa'afari as PM. What now? ChiTribune

This needs to be only a temporary coalition. Once Parliament is set up and Pres. chosen, then most decisions would require only a majority vote..Shia have almost a majority by themselves.

US AMB. SAYS THAT 'MILITIAS' ARE KILLING 4 TIMES AS MANY AS INSURGENTS ARE. But this seems clearly false. Insurgent bombs are still slaughtering Shia wholesale, while Sunnis are getting murdered only retail.

It looks like US is getting ready to double-cross Shia again, and side with Sunni insurgents.
Unhappily, US has been training and arming 'all/Iraq' forces, which are 80% Shia militia!
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One report said that nearly 1000 have been killed (mostly Sunnis) since the shrine blew up.
But that's what doesn't seem likely, from the number of assassinated corpses that show up each day.

YOUNG OFFICERS BAILING OUT: Pentagon has bragged about high reenlistment-rate.
But young officers are bailing out after term is up; young WestPoint grads are bailing out at an even higher rate. NYTIMES

Just when hitech war requires very smart soldiers, the bright ones may be bailing out.

IRAQ PARLIAMENT WILL CONVENE MONDAY. Parliament can't vote on crucial Prime Minister until one is named by Presidential trio (WHO HAVEN'T YET BEEN NAMED & ENDORSED BY 2/3ds of elected pols ! This stage is where Kurds have veto power.)

alJa'afari says he'll step down IF 'parliament' (a majority) votes against him. But that would mean he'd first have to be nominated by the Pres. trio !
HINDUSTAN TIMES

This delightful situation was caused by terms of constitution imposed by BUSHIES ! They wanted to undermine power of super-majority Shiites; instead they have caused impasse..Shiites still control the 'caretaker' govt.
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Shiites just insisted that Parliament CAN'T be convened until all factions agree on PRIME MINISTER, HOUSE SPEAKER, AND PRESIDENT. More delay.

EIGHT GIs killed since Sunday. REUTERS 12apr
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3 GIs killed today; 37 since 1 April. Over 100 Iraq casualties today. NYTIMES
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SUNNI/SHIA CONFLICT could spread outside Iraq.Shia are MAJORITY IN BAHRAIN, 30% in Kuwait, and 10% in Saudi-Arabia (most in oil-rich province!) UnitedPress

SMALL STEPS IN US/IRAN CONFLICT: FORTUNE mag. describes how slow escalation might happen. US can try to get 'coalition of willing' to embargo Iran exports--also refining of Iran's high-sulfur oil might be blocked; also Iran's imports of petrol products. On the other hand, Iran could cut down its exports somewhat without crippling its economy.

China imports 11% of its oil from Iran. An Iranian embargo against US poodle Japan (needy for oil-imports) would be possible. (Japan's new nuke reactor just leaked water containing plutonium!)

Japan & China together are said to own enough US dollars to buy every US corporation! They could punish us for interfering with their oil supplies.

Iran could remind world that, in a big emergency, it can block Strait of Hormuz (20% of world's oil flows through there!

So it looks as if, with US push & Iran pull, world oil prices will spike up. This will help oil-sellers like Russia & OPEC (including anti-US Venezuela) ! Higher US gas-prices will increase chance of GOP losing control of House in Nov.

A worry: Bushies might figure that they'll lose as much by small moves vs. Iran as by bombing.
But Iran has extra retaliatory power in such an all-out war.
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Council of Foreign Relations says that COSTS of US attacking Iran SUBSTANTIALLY OUTWEIGH benefits. FinTimes (rest of article can be read only by paid subscribers).
But then, since when have Bushies paid attention to rational cost/benefit analyses ?
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IRAN HAS WON! says commentator in GUARDIAN They'll have bomb in 3-5 years.
Nothing US & allies can do..even bombing would only DELAY the bomb.
This writer seems foolish when he says there's nothing US/Israel can do once Iran has even one bomb. One or a few small A-bombs would not change basic situation.
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Bushies should worry about this: Iran's TECHNICAL SOPHISTICATION displayed in this unexpected nuke advance, also displayed in their new missiles & torpedos, means that they may have WMDs to punish attackers in many ways, in many places. It would be child's play to hit our vulnerable Homeland with dirty bombs and/or war-germs.

GIs HAVE TO GO BACK TO BAGHDAD. It was hoped that Iraqi forces could keep the peace; but since the intersectarian killings, it was felt that GIs were needed.

On the other hand, US troops haven't been able to stop the killing either. SeattlePI

POOH-POOH to idea that Iran's threatened switch to euros for its oil [ plus its plans to set up a new oil trading-post (a 'bourse') ]--that these Iranian moves would threaten US economy. This writer gives plausible reasons for doubting this threat. http://www.progress.org/2006/fold450.htm

Still, it's interesting that with 1.5 MILLION references to Iran + bourse on GOOGLE,
NONE is from a mainstream media source ! It sounds as if these tame poodles have been warned not to let people know about this issue.

INDIVIDUALS MURDERED in various spots in Iraq.

Kurds & Sunnis refuse to accept alJa'afari as powerful PrimeMinister. (He reigns now as 'caretaker' PM.) PM must be a Shia. Shia parties have not agreed on any subsitute for AlJa'afari. (What counts is KURD refusal--one can't imagine a coalition of Shia & Sunnis!) ABC/NEWS

So impasse continues. Commentators insist that sectarian strife will diminish after new govt. is agreed on--but that's not at all certain.

GAS, HURRICANES & POLITICS: The same conditions are in place this year that made Southern Seacoast hurricanes so devastating last year (warm Gulf of Mexico goosed hurricane power before they hit coast). More such hurricanes will reveal 'reformed' FEMA as incompetent as before. (SEVEN people rejected offer to head FEMA,before one sucker accepted; the refusers likely knew FEMA is irreformable.)

If the hurricanes damage the oil-platforms again, that will give reason/or/excuse for Big Oil to spike up gas prices again. (Already prices are up to $2.65 a gallon for minimum-regular.) Pump-prices will jump up further (because of higher crude-oil prices, now over $69 a barrel--crude prices may spike further, the more speculators take seriously the rumors that crazy Bushies are about to bomb Iran ! )-- just when Americans are preparing for their summer-driving orgy. And 29cents of price for each gallon will be profit for refinery companies. (They still haven't repaired all the damage from last summer's hurricanes. In spite of--or because of--lower amt. of gas sold, Exxon last year made the biggest profit of any corporation in US history! )

All this will all happen only a few months before elections. Apparently Americans are now aware that GOP controls Congress as well as White House (they weren't always thus aware!) Thus there's some reason to think GOP will get blamed for hurricane scandals and for high gas prices . 80% of Americans think govt. CAN ( & should) control gas-prices.

One would NOT celebrate hurricane damage ! but it's not wicked to rejoice in price-rises for gasolene. We rejoice at price-rises for heroin & cocaine, because they lower consumption, especially among the young and poor. Gasolene is also addictive; more expensive gas MAY cut the driving of big, dangerous SUVs and trucks, especially by the poor and the young. (One expert says that driving will be affected ONLY when gas climbs above $2.75 a gallon.) MSN,11Apr
Even if drivers continue to 'pay the price', then they won't have $ to buy other things.
While Fed.Reserve is obsessing about 'inflation', they'll continue to raise interest rates, and thus lower aggregate consumption ('prosperity') even further.

The housing-bubble is beginning to burst. This is good news for those trying to buy a house; but bad news for present home-owners trying to sell. Foreclosures are rising, as are home-equity interest-rates. Home-owners will be less able to finance their crazy spending by home-equity loans.
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All this should give energizing hope for Nov. elections to Dems, not relaxing complacency.

STRONG DISAPPROVAL OF BUSH: 47% (strong approval, 20%). 60% disapproval.
Only 41% say war is worth fighting. Nearly half STRONGLY DISAGREE that war is worth fighting. WashPost

As expected, Bush's recent tour touting the war has not stopped support from dropping.
One wonders why his handlers sent him out on the road, since he couldn't sell solar-powered refrigerators in the Sahara desert. Probably they wanted him out of D.C., so he couldn't meddle ignorantly in their evil plans.

22 casualties in 3 days in Afgh (including 3 wounded GIs). GUARDIAN

One Saudi honcho says Iraq civil war 'may be inevitable'. Another says that Iraq is already in the middle of a civil war. A Saudi report says Iran is 'meddling' in Iran trying to 'spread its revolution' and spread the rule of Shiites. (Saudis warn against US pulling out; they may fear takeover of oil-rich Southern region as Shia ministate.) REUTERS

Meanwhile Bushies continue to deny civil war, to say GIs must stay there to PREVENT civil war.
Never mind that they can't prevent Sunnis from bombing shrines and Shia, nor Shia assassins from torturing and murdering Sunnis (so far, only a few each day).

While Bushies & top generals prattle that the war is going 'very well ! ', the official report to Congress is quite gloomy. Especially disturbing is the new instability in Basra province, formerly held stable by Brit forces. FinTimes
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It's said that Shia are ready to dump alJa'afari; but what will be the reaction of Sadrites, who forced his renomination ? And will his replacement be any more acceptable to Kurds? Any more willing to allow them to grab Kirkuk?
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EGYPT'S (Sunni) RULER MUBARREK offended Iraqi pols by saying (a) that civil war is already ongoing, and (b) that Shiites are loyal to Iran, not Iraq.

An officer of 'our' army threw a grendade at Americans.

Casualties from Friday's slaughter now counted at 265 (90 dead). NYTIMES,9Apr

'BUSHIES READY TO BOMB IRAN !' says renowned Seymour Hersch. They fondly think that the humiliation of being bombed will make Iranians turn against the mullahs !
They supposedly have sent in US agents to infiltrate Iran areas with hostile non-Farsi minorities.
(Can you imagine those agents NOT being detected?) INDEPENDENT

They're talking NUKES. British Blairites are horrified. JackStraw says: "Nuking Iran would be just nuts!" Some US officers are said to be ready to resign over this issue.

Look for all Southern Iraq to be taken over by Iran, in retaliation, with Brit troops slaughtered.
US troops would also be slaughtered. Iranian missiles would attack our Navy ships stationed nearby, and would block Strait of Hormuz (with 1/3 of world's oil passing through.)
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One reason for hope. Presumably oil-speculators know what's going on. When THEY think we're going to attack, they will SPIKE UP world oil prices spectacularly. So far they haven't. Also, US ships haven't been pulled out of missile-range.

So it looks like Bushie huffing/puffing is bluff. But maybe not.
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Crude oil went up to nearly $69 a barrel today. It's the highest since 1 Sept. (during Katrina emergency.) Bloomberg
And a security-wonk from Clinton days said on JimLehrerNews that he took the danger seriously.
Perle, the goofy-ruthless neocon, pooh-poohed the whole idea.

"MOST DANGER NOW FROM SHIITE ASSASSINS," say Americans, NOT from Sunni/insurgent bombs. OBSERVER

That is certainly not obvious, what with spectacular bombings of Shia by insurgents, and assassinations of Sunnis only a few each day.

What it might signify is US switch from backing majority Shia to backing 'clean' Saddamite insurgents.

If Shia think this is happening, they will hang on even tighter to control of allegedly 'all/Iraq' militias (actually 80% Shia)--these forces are being trained (and lightly armed) by dumb U.S.

"BUSH STARTED OUT AS A COMPASSIONATE CONSERVATIVE," says a Dem. "Later, we'd have settled for a competent conservative. Now he's a symbol of a corrupt conservative."

Shia factions meet, but they don't dumpAlJa'afari. They appointed a committee of 3 to talk with Kurds & Sunnis about the problem. Then they'll meet again tomorrow. USATODAYhttp://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2006-04-09-freedomday-iraq_x.htm
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AL JA'AFARI NOT THE BIGGEST BLOG TO 'NATL.UNITY GOVT.'
US media say that, but the biggest block to a Shia/Kurdish coalition (that would at least provide a govt.) is Shia rejection of Kurd claims to oil-soaked KIRKUK.

Why are Shia so adamant about not letting Kurds take over Kirkuk? It turns out that when Saddam threw out from Kirkuk thousands of Kurds earlier, he replaced them with SHIITES; these Shiites would be among those ejected by the Kurds. [ KurdishMedia ] But you'd think a bargain could be made; e.g., payment for the Shiite refugees from Kirkuk region.

Also, whichever Shiite is Prime Minister (& he must be a Shiite), he will never give up control of govt's army & police-force--not while Sunni Zarqawites are still able and eager to bomb Shiite towns and mosques !

Shia are in catbird seat. They run the 'caretaker' govt.in place until new govt. takes over.
And they are planning deFacto Secession, after dangerous Sunnis are chased away from their region--including Baghdad. Unless Sistani orders them to compromise with Kurds & Sunni/Arabs, they'll accept the impasse. New govt. couldn't stop the slaughter of Shias, nor the retaliation by Shias vs. Sunnis.

If U.S. forces couldn't stop militias from fighting, they certainly can't stop whole populations from going at each other. All they can do is stand in the middle, with higher casualties.
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As I remember, there is a time-limit after Parliament was convened (just ceremoniously, for a half-hour meeting), before all present arrangements are cancelled, and whole election process must begin again!

DANGER FROM SHIITES ! The Southern region, controlled by Brits, used to be quite peaceful; the Shia were grateful for Saddam's downfall, and the Brits were tactful in occupation.
But now the number of Brit casualties is up (caused by Shia guerillas!). The two Shia milita:
(Sadr's Mehdi and SCIRI's Badr) threaten occupation troops (they have infiltrated the nominal police force) and each other! NYTIMES

(If Shia suspect that US is about to double-cross them--as we did once before, in early 90s--& side with Saddamite guerillas, there'll be hell to pay!)

HUGE PIPELINE IN DANGER? An oil-pipeline 1000 miles long has been built across Azerbaijan, able to convey 1% of world oil. But it is in easy range of Iran's missiles, if we bomb Iran. UnitedPress

PATRICK COCKBURN, veteran MIDEAST correspondent for INDEPENDENT , explains why he's 'becoming convinced ' that Iraq cannot survive. He says the country is just like Lebanon before that country dissolved into civil war between religous sects.
"It's not that sectarian hatred is caused by 'no govt.' Instead,'no govt' is caused by sectarian hatred.".
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A senior official of Iraq govt. admits that Iraq has been in a state of civil war FOR A YEAR, but not on a wide scale. ITV
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Lyons has been saying for months that the only solution is for Iraq to split quickly into 3 ministates, with voluntary EthnicCleansing (minorities fleeing locations controlled by the other sect) taking place before it has to happen through blood-baths (which are already taking place). Kurdland and Shialand are already viable as ministates; the problem will come over the middle Sunni/Arab section. This will have to be handed over to Saddamite insurgents, who will then likely slaughter Zarquawi erstwhile-allies.

Problem: Sunni/Arab region is just an empire of sand: almost no oil. So the 2 viable ministates must defend themselves vs. Saddamites. This should be possible: they outnumber Sunni/Arabs 4 to 1 !

US must bugout, of course--NOT pulling back into huge fortresses (which can be attacked by mortars armed with gas or germs.)

THOSE POLLED THINK DEMS SHD CONTROL CONGRESS (49 TO 33). ABC

This does NOT mean Dems will GET control of Congress in FAll...GOP has too much money and too many tricks to think that's assured. Also, 2/3 like THEIR House Rep.

But at least it means that sensible people in many parts of US can look at the stranger in grocery store and think he's probably woken up by now.

TWO HUNDERED AND TEN CASUALTIES at a Shia mosque in Baghdad. Two suicide bombers (one inside, one outside) did the damage, on Friday, the day of prayer. NYTIMES

US ambassador Khalilzad warns of a 'possible' civil war. (That's like warning of a 'possible earthquake when buildings are collapsing all around you.)

He admits that US is talking with Sunni insurgents, and guesses that's why attacks on US forces have diminished, and US deaths have diminished.

(He doesn't note that the number of US WOUNDED has risen dramatically!
In 1st 3 months of 06, over 480 GIs were wounded so seriously they couldn't return to duty within 48 hours to their outfit. That's about FIVE EACH DAY, over 97 days ! (over 20 a day in the last 3 weeks of March ! (Then number dropped in early April.) IraqCasualties )

Shia worry sensibly that US is about to switch from backing Shia-dominated democracy to siding with Sunni insurgents (the 'Saddam-lite' option). These worries guarantee that Shia will NOT give up control of army & police-forces !

NO MOVES NOW VS. MILITIAS: 9 Militias, totalling about 100,000 fighters PLUS the 'illegal' (but powerful) MAHDI of Sadrites!). They have different motivations: sometimes sectarian hatred, sometimes simple banditry, kidnapping for ransom.

All 3 'governments' have sworn to elimintate these militias; none have moved to do so.
And this 'caretaker' govt. is not going to make any such moves at all--'at least' not till new elected govt. takes over. UnitedPress When will that be?

THREE WARS NOW IN IRAQ--WITH DISASTROUS 4TH WAR LOOMING.
--1st war, now overshadowed: Sunni insurgents vs. U.S. occupiers.

--2d war (ignored here) Kurds vs. Turkomen in North fighting for control of oil-soaked Kirkuk. (Turkey huffing/puffing in background.)

--3d war: Sunni vs. Shiite fighting for control of mixed area around Baghdad.
Ethnic Cleansing: 40,000 refugees so far. 3000 killed in last 6 weeks.
(This is as big a bloodbath as the ones that set aflame Northern Ireland and Lebanon, earlier.)

--FOURTH POSSIBLE WAR: If Shia turn against Americans, they might block our SUPPLY PIPELINE from Kuwait ! UnitedPress

WEALTH MAKES U.S. JOBS?
A favorite right-wing mantra says that money going to the wealthy eventually makes new jobs for ordinary Americans. That's what's interesting about the full-page story in MONEY section of USATODAY on 7April.

This story tells how profitable it can be to invest in foreign stocks. This reminds us that there is NO reason to expect the wealthy to invest in America; NOT if the return from foreign stocks is higher.

Nor need the wealthy consume goods made by U.S. workers. They can travel overseas, where expenditures count as imports; they can buy expensive foreign cars. They can buy goods from U.S. corporations who use automation and outsourcing to replace U.S. worker-hours. (Indeed, money invested in 'U.S.' corporations is often spent to CUT jobs for U.S. workers!)

In fact there is no such thing as an 'American' corporation. Money flows where it can be best multiplied; money has no national loyalty.

SHIITE POLS BLOCK CONVENING OF PARLIAMENT: they want to consult their 'Pope/oracle" SISTANI about alJaafari as Prime Minister. (Their splintered factions can't agree on this; Kurds & Sunnis strongly oppose him.) NYTIMES

FIFTY CASUALTIES on Thursday NEAR SHRINE & Sistani's house in Najaf from car-bomb.
Zarqawites are still determined (and able) to provoke civil war. NYTIMES
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PEACE CONFERENCE called by King Abdullah of Jordan (desc. of Mohammed) to make clear religious opposition to shia/sunni conflict. (A previous conference of top religous scholars condemned the conflict--without effect.) UnitedPress

SHIP CONTAINERS COULD BE INSPECTED CHEAPLY.
UnitedPress

Private companies have piled up inspection-records of over one million containers in HongKong. BUT BUSHIE 'HOMELAND SECURITY DEPT.' hasn't got personnel to inspect these records ! They don't seem interested.

Once again, evidence that Bushies strangely don't seem to care much about protecting our Homeland from terrorist attack.

(Also, inspecting containers overseas has this defect: contraband material--e.g., a nuclear BOMB!--could be smuggled into container between inspection-site and US seaport.)

POLYTRAUMA: e.g., GI has lost both arms & eyesight, plus brain-function. He can't see or hold his new baby.

Finally, WashPost addresses the seriously wounded, those flown home to WalterReed hospital.1500 total. Over 500 first 2 years, 400 3d year. (There may be more, flown to German hospital instead of W.R.)

LIMBS blown off, guts blown open,brains devastated... 323 amputees.

Staff very stressed: "now I realize the price we pay for freedom."

Bullshit--these horrors are the price we pay for Bushies' crazy bid for empire.

AL JAAFARI WON'T PULL OUT as candidate for PrimeMinister.
Constitutional impasse: 2/3ds needed to select President; Shia can block any candidate. Only then could President name an alternative PM, to be OKd by simple majority. 60-day-time limit running out; then the whole election process must start over. SeattlePI

Americans forced in this constitution.
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Many agreed that Rice/Shaw meddling had made Jaafari crowd more determined to resist USpressure.
NYTIMES
SURPRISE !

'First priority is to disband the militias',Rice tells Iraqis.
Bloody likely. Inconceivable that Kurds would dissolve their peshmergas--but that's not what she meant. (Everyone has accepted deFacto secession by the Kurds.)

The problem is the Sunni militas (the insurgents!) and now at least 2 Shia militias: The Mehdi of Sadr and the Badr of SCIRI. Sunni insurgents are still slaughtering innocent Shia with bombs; and it looks like Shia are torturing and murdering innocent Sunnis. (The 2 Shia militias might end up fighting each other! Kurdish militias used to fight each other, but now they seem to get along.)

The fight is mainly over controlling Baghdad. Each sect wants to scare the other sect out of this long-mixed city. Odds are, Shia will win this fight...they outnumber the Sunnis, in Baghdad and in Iraq as a whole. And their militias have been trained and armed (slightly) by the dumb Americans!

Shia are not likely to bow to Rice and dissolve their militias.
She says that 'sacrifice' of Brit and US troops entitle them to complain about failure as yet to form a 'govt. of natl.unity'. Since when do the casualties of invading, unwelcome armies 'entitle' the invading nations to interfere with politics of (allegedly) sovereign Iraq ? ! ? !

The real message is likely that the invading troops will somehow punish Iraqis further if their wishes are not fulfilled. How could they do this?
Maybe by increasing the daily bombings even more.

Would that make the Iraqi pols yield? One doubts it; they're fighting over lucrative personal perks in the future govt. Shia pols especially have little reason to yield. They probably plan deFacto secession like that of Kurds, after Sunnis are chased out of their region (including Baghdad).
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CARETAKER GOVT. REFUSES TO HIRE POLICE TRAINED BY AMERICANS: Reason: they don't control recruitment of these candidates.
GUARDIAN
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150 POLICE KILLED EACH MONTH. Yet recruits keep coming forward. Destitute Iraqis are desperate for high police pay. GUARDIAN (Are these desperate candidates qualified?)

SEVENTY IRAQ CASUALTIES ON MON & TUES FROM 2 BOMBS.
ABC

NAUGHTY VENEZUELA HAS MORE OIL THAN SAUDI-ARABIA!
Insolent Chavez wants to freeze oil prices at $50 a barrel. His thick crude oil can be rendered useful at $40 a barrel. GUARDIAN

Presently crude oil is climbing toward $70 a barrel !

Bush has been chattering about relieving our dependence on MiddleEast oil.
Here's his chance--but Exxon & buddies don't like this possibility.
Better deal with wild, corrupt oil-sultans than with left-wingers who care for the poor!

Bushies compare Chavez to Hitler and say he's in cahoots with Iran (!!!!)

At what point will Bushies quit subtle moves, and attack Venezuela?
Problem: other So.American nations are siding with him vs. Bush's America.

NINE GIs DEAD TODAY & 3 MISSING. /FORBES
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MIDDLE-CLASS SUNNIS FORM LOCAL MILITIAS: Before, they weren't involved in conflict. But now their mosques have been attacked (presumably by Shia), so they have 'minutemen' stationed in each neighborhood. FinTimes

Some observer has claimed that little militias in each neighborhood are a greater danger to civil peace than are large militias ready to fight each other.

'OUR FAILURE THEIR ONLY GOAL':
The Nazis probably said about the resistance-fighters in France and Poland: "Their only goal is that we should fail; we must not be allowed to build their countries into Aryan utopias." But actually that was only the proximate goal of the resistance; they knew what kind of society they wanted in the future, which was NOT the ideal of the foreign invaders.

Similarly, American imperialist Thomas Friedman says absurdly that the only goal of the Iraqi insurgents is that we must fail, not turn the country into the 'democratic' utopia Friedman envisions. (RMN3Apr) Expelling the foreign invaders is of course their PROXIMATE goal; they have other goals for the future--goals we probably would not approve of--but so what?

Friedman refers correctly to 'Islamo-fascists' who do not intend the will of the majority to control Iraq. He does not mention the Ziono-fascists who control Palestine, against the will of that majority--or the Christo-fascist Bushies who try to control Iraq, and still decree who should rule there, vetoing the man elected by the very procedures the Bushies set up ! (That man won the election narrowly--just as Bush won his two elections here.)

None of this matters; Bush's ignorant invasion has resulted in total Iraqi chaos--just as Israeli and Syrian interference earlier plunged Lebanon into anarchic horror.

TWENTY-SEVEN THOUSAND U.S. air missions in ONE MONTH from one base in Iraq, HUNDREDS of them BOMBING Iraqis.

AirForce officers say they don't like the idea of Iraqi officers calling in strikes later on; they may make our planes attack their enemies, not insurgents. (This has happened in Afgh. & Iraq !)
Also, it'd feared that Iraqi spotters won't try as hard as Americans do to avoid 'collateral damage'. Boston.com

But even now, U.S. planes have to attack sites that are ALLEGED to be insurgent sites; even now it's said they're attacking innocents.
How the hell would U.S.spotters know which sites are really insurgent sites? They don't even speak the language.

Polls show that Iraqis think Americans make no real effort to avoid killing innocents.

FIFTY DEAD AT LEAST on Sunday, including 6 GIs (2 of them crew in the shot-down copter.) WashPost
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RICE THREATENS IRAQI POLS: "Time is running out for forming govt.",she told them. But what can she do if they DON'T hurry?
I guess she could cut off bribes for the elected pols. However, those bribes are small compared to the stakes of running the new govt.

On the other hand, THOSE stakes are not so high--likely the central govt. will be just a few bldgs in (fortified) Green zone. What counts is control of 'pretended all/Iraq' security forces. And beleagured Shia would be fools to give up that control !
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"FIGHT AMERICANS, NOT EACH OTHER!" was reaction of Iraqis interviewed by TIME (cited by UnitedPress )

WHAT U.S. MOVES IN FEARED CIVIL WAR?
We'd want to stop this: it could end up with Sunni neighbors helping Sunni Iraqis, Shia Iran helping Shia, and Turkey invading to put down the Kurds--or the winner of the Shia/Sunni war putting down the Kurds.

But what could we do ? Since U.S. has not been able to put down the sectarian militias, we certainly cannot control whole populations warring with each other!
UnitedPress
Also, the large, unhappy Shia minorities in Sunni countries (e.g., 2 million Shia in OIL SECTIONS of Saudi Arabia!) might rise up to side with Iraqi Shia!
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Remember when Bushies, as one reason to squash Saddam, said that HE threatened to 'destabilize' the whole MiddleEast ?

PERMANENT IRAQ BASES: In spite of Bushie chatter about 'leaving when the job is done', U.S. has spent millions on constructing permanent bases in Iraq, so Iraq can be another 'unsinkable aircraft carrier' for Pentagon. INDEPENDENT

Such bases infuriate Iraqis, help to recruit insurgents. (The bribed pols will probably ask that bases be kept there.)

It's a mystery why they think we need such bases to dominate the MiddleEast. After all, we bombed Afghanistan thoroughly with B-52s based in Kansas!

The dozens of U.S. bases around the world (the ones in Okinawa and Korea have been there for over 50 years!) cost billions to maintain. These overseas expenses count as 'imports', which our puny exports can't match--resulting in unheard-of trade deficits (as well as aggravating our federal deficits.)

One guesses these bases are excuses for 'slush-funds' for Pentagon-friendly foreign regimes. They can afford those millions; after all, each DAY Pentagon gets $1500 MILLIONS from GOP Congress.
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Central banker in Manila warns Asian nations that they must get ready to coordinate their response to COLLAPSE OF U.S. DOLLAR.
al Jazeera